bayesRatings

Broncos at Colts

NFL · Sunday, Sep 14 · 3:05 PM CT · Lucas Oil Stadium · Final DEN 28 – IND 29
← NFL / Sep 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN7147028
IND6143629
Team box
DEN·IND
324
total yards
473
206
passing yards
306
118
rushing yards
167
23
first downs
26
4-9
third downs
6-13
1
turnovers
0
27:53
time of possession
32:07
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Bo NixDEN22/3020631
Daniel JonesIND23/3431610
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
J.K. DobbinsDEN14761
Jonathan TaylorIND251650
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Troy FranklinDEN8891
Tyler WarrenIND4790

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +8
DEN +8
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 6 · DEN 8lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 49%, IND 51% · Updated Sep 14, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 0.4
Expected score
DEN 22.2 – 21.8 IND
Expected total
44.0
BroncosThe matchupColts
+105Our fair odds−105
22.2Expected points21.8
+0.25Power rating+0.01
20.0Points / game33.0
12.0Allowed / game8.0
317Total yards / game418
4.5Yards / play6.0
166Passing yards / game262
1−0Season record1−0
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · IND chance
Our model fair48.8%51.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Broncos+10549%————
INDIndianapolis Colts−10551%————
SpreadDEN by 0.4
DENDenver Broncos−0.4our margin————
INDIndianapolis Colts+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 44.0
Over44.0our total————
Under44.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Broncos by 0.4 expected
Denver Broncos by 38 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 37 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 36 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 35 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 34 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 33 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 32 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 31 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 30 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 29 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 28 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 27 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 26 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 25 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 24 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 23 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 22 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 21 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 20 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 19 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 18 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 17 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 16 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 15 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 14 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 13 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 12 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 11 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 10 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 9 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 8 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 7 points: 5%Denver Broncos by 6 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 5 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 4 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 3 points: 9%Denver Broncos by 2 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 1 point: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 2 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 3 points: 7%Indianapolis Colts by 4 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 5 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 6 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 7 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 8 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 9 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 10 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 11 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 12 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 13 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 14 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 15 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 16 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 17 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 18 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 19 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 20 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 21 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 22 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 23 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 24 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 25 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 26 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 27 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 28 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 29 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 30 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 31 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 32 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 33 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 34 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 35 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 36 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 37 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 38 points: <1%
← DEN wins byIND wins by →
Denver Broncos wins by 3 or more48%
Denver Broncos wins by 7 or more29%
Denver Broncos wins by 10 or more22%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

44.0 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 37.566%
Total over 44.546%
Total over 51.528%
Total from 38 to 5139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DENBo Nix · last 3 games: 70% completions, 214 yds/game, 6 TD, 2 INTstarted
INDDaniel Jones · last 3 games: 70% completions, 212 yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·IND
Sep 7, 2025 vs TEN
last game
Sep 7, 2025 vs MIA
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
DEN·IND
+0.25
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
20.0
points / game
33.0
12.0
points allowed / game
8.0
1−0
season record
1−0
1−0
home record
1−0
0−0
away record
0−0
W1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
317
total yards / game
418
4.5
yards / play
6.0
166
passing yards / game
262
151
rushing yards / game
156
20.0
first downs / game
27.0
4.0
turnovers / game
0.0

Rating Trend

DEN · IND · 2 days
Denver BroncosIndianapolis Colts
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · IND 1−1
Dec 15, 2024at DENDEN 31 − 13
Oct 6, 2022at DENIND 12 − 9

DEN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 7, 2025vs TEN20 − 12W
Jan 12, 2025at BUF7 − 31L
Jan 5, 2025vs KC38 − 0W
Dec 28, 2024at CIN24 − 30L
Dec 19, 2024at LAC27 − 34L
Dec 15, 2024vs IND31 − 13W
Dec 2, 2024vs CLE41 − 32W
Nov 24, 2024at LV29 − 19W
Nov 17, 2024vs ATL38 − 6W
Nov 10, 2024at KC14 − 16L

IND · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Sep 7, 2025vs MIA33 − 8W
Jan 5, 2025vs JAX26 − 23W
Dec 29, 2024at NYG33 − 45L
Dec 22, 2024vs TEN38 − 30W
Dec 15, 2024at DEN13 − 31L
Dec 1, 2024at NE25 − 24W
Nov 24, 2024vs DET6 − 24L
Nov 17, 2024at NYJ28 − 27W
Nov 10, 2024vs BUF20 − 30L
Nov 3, 2024at MIN13 − 21L