bayesRatings

Jaguars at Bengals

NFL · Sunday, Sep 14 · 12:00 PM CT · Paycor Stadium · Final JAX 27 – CIN 31
← NFL / Sep 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
JAX7107327
CIN7314731
Team box
JAX·CIN
400
total yards
350
261
passing yards
302
139
rushing yards
48
21
first downs
24
6-13
third downs
6-14
2
turnovers
3
33:11
time of possession
26:49
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Trevor LawrenceJAX24/4227132
Jake BrowningCIN21/3224123
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Travis Etienne Jr.JAX14710
Chase BrownCIN16470
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Parker WashingtonJAX5760
Ja'Marr ChaseCIN141651

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +7
JAX +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CIN 4 · JAX 7lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was JAX 32%, CIN 68% · Updated Sep 14, 2025

Expected margin
CIN by 7.6
Expected score
CIN 27.3 – 19.7 JAX
Expected total
47.0
JaguarsThe matchupBengals
+210Our fair odds−210
19.7Expected points27.3
−0.34Power rating+0.18
26.0Points / game17.0
10.0Allowed / game16.0
378Total yards / game141
6.0Yards / play2.9
178Passing yards / game95
1−0Season record1−0
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
JAX chance · CIN chance
Our model fair32.3%67.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
JAXJacksonville Jaguars+21032%————
CINCincinnati Bengals−21068%————
SpreadCIN by 7.6
JAXJacksonville Jaguars+7.6our margin————
CINCincinnati Bengals−7.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 47.0
Over47.0our total————
Under47.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cincinnati Bengals by 7.6 expected
Jacksonville Jaguars by 46 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 45 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 44 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 43 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 42 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 41 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 40 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 39 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 38 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 37 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 36 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 35 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 34 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 33 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 32 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 31 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 30 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 29 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 28 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 27 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 26 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 25 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 24 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 23 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 22 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 21 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 20 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 19 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 18 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 17 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 16 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 15 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 13 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 11 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 9 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 4 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 points: 6%Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 1 point: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 2 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 3 points: 7%Cincinnati Bengals by 4 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 5 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 6 points: 4%Cincinnati Bengals by 7 points: 4%Cincinnati Bengals by 8 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 9 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 10 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 11 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 12 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 13 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 14 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 15 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 16 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 17 points: 4%Cincinnati Bengals by 18 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 19 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 20 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 21 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 22 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 23 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 24 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 25 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 26 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 27 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 28 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 29 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 30 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 31 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 32 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 33 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 34 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 35 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 36 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 37 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 38 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 39 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 40 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 41 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 42 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 43 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 44 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 45 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 46 points: <1%
← JAX wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 3 or more64%
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 7 or more49%
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 10 or more40%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

47.0 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 40.566%
Total over 47.546%
Total over 54.529%
Total from 41 to 5437%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
JAXTrevor Lawrence · last 3 games: 54% completions, 129 yds/game, 1 TD, 4 INTstarted
CINJake Browning · last 3 games: 66% completions, 229 yds/game, 5 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
JAX·CIN
Sep 7, 2025 vs CAR
last game
Sep 7, 2025 at CLE
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
JAX·CIN
−0.34
rating (0 = average)
+0.18
26.0
points / game
17.0
10.0
points allowed / game
16.0
1−0
season record
1−0
1−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
1−0
W1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
7−3
378
total yards / game
141
6.0
yards / play
2.9
178
passing yards / game
95
200
rushing yards / game
46
19.0
first downs / game
11.0
1.0
turnovers / game
0.0

Rating Trend

JAX · CIN · 2 days
Jacksonville JaguarsCincinnati Bengals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · CIN 2−0
Dec 4, 2023at JAXCIN 34 − 31
Sep 30, 2021at CINCIN 24 − 21

JAX · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Sep 7, 2025vs CAR26 − 10W
Jan 5, 2025at IND23 − 26L
Dec 29, 2024vs TEN20 − 13W
Dec 22, 2024at LV14 − 19L
Dec 15, 2024vs NYJ25 − 32L
Dec 8, 2024at TEN10 − 6W
Dec 1, 2024vs HOU20 − 23L
Nov 17, 2024at DET6 − 52L
Nov 10, 2024vs MIN7 − 12L
Nov 3, 2024at PHI23 − 28L

CIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W6
Sep 7, 2025at CLE17 − 16W
Jan 4, 2025at PIT19 − 17W
Dec 28, 2024vs DEN30 − 24W
Dec 22, 2024vs CLE24 − 6W
Dec 15, 2024at TEN37 − 27W
Dec 9, 2024at DAL27 − 20W
Dec 1, 2024vs PIT38 − 44L
Nov 17, 2024at LAC27 − 34L
Nov 7, 2024at BAL34 − 35L
Nov 3, 2024vs LV41 − 24W