bayesRatings

Rams at Titans

NFL · Sunday, Sep 14 · 12:00 PM CT · Nissan Stadium · Final LAR 33 – TEN 19
← NFL / Sep 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAR73101333
TEN0133319
Team box
LAR·TEN
439
total yards
252
290
passing yards
143
149
rushing yards
109
22
first downs
18
5-12
third downs
6-15
1
turnovers
1
29:53
time of possession
30:07
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Matthew StaffordLAR23/3329821
Cam WardTEN19/3317510
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kyren WilliamsLAR17660
Tony PollardTEN20920
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Davante AdamsLAR61061
Calvin RidleyTEN3570

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEN +17
LAR +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TEN 3 · LAR 17lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAR 65%, TEN 35% · Updated Sep 14, 2025

Expected margin
LAR by 7.7
Expected score
LAR 23.5 – 15.8 TEN
Expected total
39.2
RamsThe matchupTitans
−189Our fair odds+189
23.5Expected points15.8
+0.26Power rating−0.75
14.0Points / game12.0
9.0Allowed / game20.0
296Total yards / game133
5.2Yards / play2.4
224Passing yards / game62
1−0Season record0−1
7−3Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAR chance · TEN chance
Our model fair65.4%34.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LARLos Angeles Rams−18965%————
TENTennessee Titans+18935%————
SpreadLAR by 7.7
LARLos Angeles Rams−7.7our margin————
TENTennessee Titans+7.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 39.2
Over39.2our total————
Under39.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Rams by 7.7 expected
Los Angeles Rams by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 34 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 30 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 28 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 25 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 24 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 23 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 22 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 21 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 20 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 17 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 14 points: 5%Los Angeles Rams by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 7 points: 5%Los Angeles Rams by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 3 points: 8%Los Angeles Rams by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Tennessee Titans by 1 point: 2%Tennessee Titans by 2 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 3 points: 5%Tennessee Titans by 4 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 5 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 6 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 7 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 8 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 9 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 10 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 11 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 12 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 13 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 14 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 15 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 16 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 17 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 18 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 19 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 20 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 21 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 22 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 23 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 24 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 25 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 26 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 27 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 28 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 29 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 30 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 31 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 32 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 33 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 34 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 35 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 36 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 37 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 38 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 39 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 40 points: <1%
← LAR wins byTEN wins by →
Los Angeles Rams wins by 3 or more67%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 7 or more50%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 10 or more42%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

39.2 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.569%
Total over 39.547%
Total over 46.528%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LARMatthew Stafford · last 3 games: 66% completions, 259 yds/game, 5 TD, 0 INTstarted
TENCam Ward · last 1 game: 43% completions, 112 yds/game, 0 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAR·TEN
Sep 7, 2025 vs HOU
last game
Sep 7, 2025 at DEN
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
LAR·TEN
+0.26
rating (0 = average)
−0.75
14.0
points / game
12.0
9.0
points allowed / game
20.0
1−0
season record
0−1
1−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−1
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
1−9
296
total yards / game
133
5.2
yards / play
2.4
224
passing yards / game
62
72
rushing yards / game
71
18.0
first downs / game
7.0
1.0
turnovers / game
2.0

Rating Trend

LAR · TEN · 2 days
Los Angeles RamsTennessee Titans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · TEN 1−0
Nov 7, 2021at LARTEN 28 − 16

LAR · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Sep 7, 2025vs HOU14 − 9W
Jan 19, 2025at PHI22 − 28L
Jan 13, 2025vs MIN27 − 9W
Jan 5, 2025vs SEA25 − 30L
Dec 28, 2024vs ARI13 − 9W
Dec 22, 2024at NYJ19 − 9W
Dec 12, 2024at SF12 − 6W
Dec 8, 2024vs BUF44 − 42W
Dec 1, 2024at NO21 − 14W
Nov 24, 2024vs PHI20 − 37L

TEN · Last 10

1−9 · streak L7
Sep 7, 2025at DEN12 − 20L
Jan 5, 2025vs HOU14 − 23L
Dec 29, 2024at JAX13 − 20L
Dec 22, 2024at IND30 − 38L
Dec 15, 2024vs CIN27 − 37L
Dec 8, 2024vs JAX6 − 10L
Dec 1, 2024at WSH19 − 42L
Nov 24, 2024at HOU32 − 27W
Nov 17, 2024vs MIN13 − 23L
Nov 10, 2024at LAC17 − 27L