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Patriots at Dolphins

NFL · Sunday, Sep 14 · 12:00 PM CT · Hard Rock Stadium · Final NE 33 – MIA 27
← NFL / Sep 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NE12381033
MIA0146727
Team box
NE·MIA
333
total yards
358
211
passing yards
297
122
rushing yards
61
18
first downs
16
7-12
third downs
4-10
0
turnovers
1
33:45
time of possession
26:15
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Drake MayeNE19/2323020
Tua TagovailoaMIA26/3231521
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Rhamondre StevensonNE11540
De'Von AchaneMIA11300
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Rhamondre StevensonNE5880
Tyreek HillMIA61090

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +12
NE +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 5 · NE 12lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NE 31%, MIA 69% · Updated Sep 14, 2025

Expected margin
MIA by 7.4
Expected score
MIA 22.8 – 15.4 NE
Expected total
38.2
PatriotsThe matchupDolphins
+223Our fair odds−223
15.4Expected points22.8
−0.80Power rating−0.21
13.0Points / game8.0
20.0Allowed / game33.0
336Total yards / game211
4.9Yards / play4.6
276Passing yards / game133
0−1Season record0−1
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NE chance · MIA chance
Our model fair31.0%69.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NENew England Patriots+22331%————
MIAMiami Dolphins−22369%————
SpreadMIA by 7.4
NENew England Patriots+7.4our margin————
MIAMiami Dolphins−7.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 38.2
Over38.2our total————
Under38.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Dolphins by 7.4 expected
New England Patriots by 46 points: <1%New England Patriots by 45 points: <1%New England Patriots by 44 points: <1%New England Patriots by 43 points: <1%New England Patriots by 42 points: <1%New England Patriots by 41 points: <1%New England Patriots by 40 points: <1%New England Patriots by 39 points: <1%New England Patriots by 38 points: <1%New England Patriots by 37 points: <1%New England Patriots by 36 points: <1%New England Patriots by 35 points: <1%New England Patriots by 34 points: <1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 32 points: <1%New England Patriots by 31 points: <1%New England Patriots by 30 points: <1%New England Patriots by 29 points: <1%New England Patriots by 28 points: <1%New England Patriots by 27 points: <1%New England Patriots by 26 points: <1%New England Patriots by 25 points: <1%New England Patriots by 24 points: <1%New England Patriots by 23 points: <1%New England Patriots by 22 points: <1%New England Patriots by 21 points: 1%New England Patriots by 20 points: <1%New England Patriots by 19 points: <1%New England Patriots by 18 points: <1%New England Patriots by 17 points: 1%New England Patriots by 16 points: 1%New England Patriots by 15 points: <1%New England Patriots by 14 points: 2%New England Patriots by 13 points: <1%New England Patriots by 12 points: <1%New England Patriots by 11 points: <1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 2%New England Patriots by 9 points: <1%New England Patriots by 8 points: 1%New England Patriots by 7 points: 3%New England Patriots by 6 points: 2%New England Patriots by 5 points: 2%New England Patriots by 4 points: 2%New England Patriots by 3 points: 6%New England Patriots by 2 points: 1%New England Patriots by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Miami Dolphins by 1 point: 2%Miami Dolphins by 2 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 3 points: 7%Miami Dolphins by 4 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 5 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 6 points: 4%Miami Dolphins by 7 points: 4%Miami Dolphins by 8 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 9 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 10 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 11 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 12 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 13 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 14 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 15 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 16 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 17 points: 4%Miami Dolphins by 18 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 19 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 20 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 21 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 22 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 23 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 24 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 25 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 26 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 27 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 28 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 29 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 30 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 31 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 32 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 33 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 34 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 35 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 36 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 37 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 38 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 39 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 40 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 41 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 42 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 43 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 44 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 45 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 46 points: <1%
← NE wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Dolphins wins by 3 or more64%
Miami Dolphins wins by 7 or more48%
Miami Dolphins wins by 10 or more40%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

38.2 expected
5 points: <1%6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 3%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 31.569%
Total over 38.547%
Total over 45.528%
Total from 32 to 4541%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 61% completions, 135 yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INTstarted
MIATua Tagovailoa · last 3 games: 67% completions, 175 yds/game, 3 TD, 5 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NE·MIA
Sep 7, 2025 vs LV
last game
Sep 7, 2025 at IND
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
NE·MIA
−0.80
rating (0 = average)
−0.21
13.0
points / game
8.0
20.0
points allowed / game
33.0
0−1
season record
0−1
0−1
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−1
L1
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
6−4
336
total yards / game
211
4.9
yards / play
4.6
276
passing yards / game
133
60
rushing yards / game
78
18.0
first downs / game
12.0
1.0
turnovers / game
3.0

Rating Trend

NE · MIA · 2 days
New England PatriotsMiami Dolphins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · MIA 7−1
Nov 24, 2024at MIAMIA 34 − 15
Oct 6, 2024at NEMIA 15 − 10
Oct 29, 2023at MIAMIA 31 − 17
Sep 17, 2023at NEMIA 24 − 17
Jan 1, 2023at NENE 23 − 21
Sep 11, 2022at MIAMIA 20 − 7
Jan 9, 2022at MIAMIA 33 − 24
Sep 12, 2021at NEMIA 17 − 16

NE · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Sep 7, 2025vs LV13 − 20L
Jan 5, 2025vs BUF23 − 16W
Dec 28, 2024vs LAC7 − 40L
Dec 22, 2024at BUF21 − 24L
Dec 15, 2024at ARI17 − 30L
Dec 1, 2024vs IND24 − 25L
Nov 24, 2024at MIA15 − 34L
Nov 17, 2024vs LAR22 − 28L
Nov 10, 2024at CHI19 − 3W
Nov 3, 2024at TEN17 − 20L

MIA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Sep 7, 2025at IND8 − 33L
Jan 5, 2025at NYJ20 − 32L
Dec 29, 2024at CLE20 − 3W
Dec 22, 2024vs SF29 − 17W
Dec 15, 2024at HOU12 − 20L
Dec 8, 2024vs NYJ32 − 26W
Nov 28, 2024at GB17 − 30L
Nov 24, 2024vs NE34 − 15W
Nov 17, 2024vs LV34 − 19W
Nov 11, 2024at LAR23 − 15W