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Giants at Cowboys

NFL · Sunday, Sep 14 · 12:00 PM CT · AT&T Stadium · Final NYG 37 – DAL 40
← NFL / Sep 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
NYG67321037
DAL010720340
Team box
NYG·DAL
506
total yards
478
422
passing yards
343
84
rushing yards
135
22
first downs
32
6-14
third downs
6-14
1
turnovers
1
32:39
time of possession
37:21
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Russell WilsonNYG30/4145031
Dak PrescottDAL38/5236121
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Cam SkatteboNYG11451
Javonte WilliamsDAL18971
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Malik NabersNYG91672
CeeDee LambDAL91120

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +10
NYG +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: DAL 4 · NYG 10lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYG 30%, DAL 70% · Updated Sep 14, 2025

Expected margin
DAL by 8.5
Expected score
DAL 25.1 – 16.6 NYG
Expected total
41.8
GiantsThe matchupCowboys
+233Our fair odds−233
16.6Expected points25.1
−0.79Power rating−0.15
6.0Points / game20.0
21.0Allowed / game24.0
231Total yards / game307
3.7Yards / play5.5
157Passing yards / game188
0−1Season record0−1
1−9Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYG chance · DAL chance
Our model fair30.0%70.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYGNew York Giants+23330%————
DALDallas Cowboys−23370%————
SpreadDAL by 8.5
NYGNew York Giants+8.5our margin————
DALDallas Cowboys−8.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 41.8
Over41.8our total————
Under41.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Cowboys by 8.5 expected
New York Giants by 47 points: <1%New York Giants by 46 points: <1%New York Giants by 45 points: <1%New York Giants by 44 points: <1%New York Giants by 43 points: <1%New York Giants by 42 points: <1%New York Giants by 41 points: <1%New York Giants by 40 points: <1%New York Giants by 39 points: <1%New York Giants by 38 points: <1%New York Giants by 37 points: <1%New York Giants by 36 points: <1%New York Giants by 35 points: <1%New York Giants by 34 points: <1%New York Giants by 33 points: <1%New York Giants by 32 points: <1%New York Giants by 31 points: <1%New York Giants by 30 points: <1%New York Giants by 29 points: <1%New York Giants by 28 points: <1%New York Giants by 27 points: <1%New York Giants by 26 points: <1%New York Giants by 25 points: <1%New York Giants by 24 points: <1%New York Giants by 23 points: <1%New York Giants by 22 points: <1%New York Giants by 21 points: <1%New York Giants by 20 points: <1%New York Giants by 19 points: <1%New York Giants by 18 points: <1%New York Giants by 17 points: 1%New York Giants by 16 points: 1%New York Giants by 15 points: <1%New York Giants by 14 points: 1%New York Giants by 13 points: <1%New York Giants by 12 points: <1%New York Giants by 11 points: <1%New York Giants by 10 points: 1%New York Giants by 9 points: <1%New York Giants by 8 points: 1%New York Giants by 7 points: 3%New York Giants by 6 points: 2%New York Giants by 5 points: 2%New York Giants by 4 points: 2%New York Giants by 3 points: 6%New York Giants by 2 points: 1%New York Giants by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 1 point: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 2 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 3 points: 7%Dallas Cowboys by 4 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 5 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 6 points: 4%Dallas Cowboys by 7 points: 4%Dallas Cowboys by 8 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 9 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 10 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 11 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 12 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 13 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 14 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 15 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 16 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 17 points: 4%Dallas Cowboys by 18 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 19 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 20 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 21 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 22 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 23 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 24 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 25 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 26 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 27 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 28 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 29 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 30 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 31 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 32 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 33 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 34 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 35 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 36 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 37 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 38 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 39 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 40 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 41 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 42 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 43 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 44 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 45 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 46 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 47 points: <1%
← NYG wins byDAL wins by →
Dallas Cowboys wins by 3 or more66%
Dallas Cowboys wins by 7 or more51%
Dallas Cowboys wins by 10 or more43%
Within 3 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

41.8 expected
8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 34.569%
Total over 41.549%
Total over 48.529%
Total from 35 to 4840%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NYGRussell Wilson · last 3 games: 56% completions, 195 yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INTstarted
DALDak Prescott · last 3 games: 67% completions, 188 yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYG·DAL
Sep 7, 2025 at WSH
last game
Sep 4, 2025 at PHI
6 days
days of rest
9 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
NYG·DAL
−0.79
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
6.0
points / game
20.0
21.0
points allowed / game
24.0
0−1
season record
0−1
0−0
home record
0−0
0−1
away record
0−1
L1
streak
L1
1−9
last 10
4−6
231
total yards / game
307
3.7
yards / play
5.5
157
passing yards / game
188
74
rushing yards / game
119
17.0
first downs / game
22.0
0.0
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

NYG · DAL · 2 days
New York GiantsDallas Cowboys
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · DAL 8−0
Nov 28, 2024at DALDAL 27 − 20
Sep 26, 2024at NYGDAL 20 − 15
Nov 12, 2023at DALDAL 49 − 17
Sep 10, 2023at NYGDAL 40 − 0
Nov 24, 2022at DALDAL 28 − 20
Sep 26, 2022at NYGDAL 23 − 16
Dec 19, 2021at NYGDAL 21 − 6
Oct 10, 2021at DALDAL 44 − 20

NYG · Last 10

1−9 · streak L2
Sep 7, 2025at WSH6 − 21L
Jan 5, 2025at PHI13 − 20L
Dec 29, 2024vs IND45 − 33W
Dec 22, 2024at ATL7 − 34L
Dec 15, 2024vs BAL14 − 35L
Dec 8, 2024vs NO11 − 14L
Nov 28, 2024at DAL20 − 27L
Nov 24, 2024vs TB7 − 30L
Nov 10, 2024at CAR17 − 20L
Nov 3, 2024vs WSH22 − 27L

DAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Sep 4, 2025at PHI20 − 24L
Jan 5, 2025vs WSH19 − 23L
Dec 29, 2024at PHI7 − 41L
Dec 22, 2024vs TB26 − 24W
Dec 15, 2024at CAR30 − 14W
Dec 9, 2024vs CIN20 − 27L
Nov 28, 2024vs NYG27 − 20W
Nov 24, 2024at WSH34 − 26W
Nov 18, 2024vs HOU10 − 34L
Nov 10, 2024vs PHI6 − 34L