bayesRatings

Eagles at Chiefs

NFL · Sunday, Sep 14 · 3:25 PM CT · Arrowhead Stadium · Final PHI 20 – KC 17
← NFL / Sep 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI733720
KC0100717
Team box
PHI·KC
216
total yards
294
94
passing yards
173
122
rushing yards
121
16
first downs
17
5-14
third downs
4-12
0
turnovers
1
32:34
time of possession
27:26
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jalen HurtsPHI15/2210100
Patrick MahomesKC16/2918711
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Saquon BarkleyPHI22881
Patrick MahomesKC7661
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
DeVonta SmithPHI4530
Travis KelceKC4610

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +10
PHI +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: KC 3 · PHI 10lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 55%, KC 45% · Updated Sep 14, 2025

Expected margin
PHI by 3.7
Expected score
PHI 24.7 – 20.9 KC
Expected total
45.6
EaglesThe matchupChiefs
−121Our fair odds+121
24.7Expected points20.9
+0.96Power rating+0.45
24.0Points / game21.0
20.0Allowed / game27.0
302Total yards / game347
4.9Yards / play6.0
144Passing yards / game249
1−0Season record0−1
9−1Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · KC chance
Our model fair54.7%45.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−12155%————
KCKansas City Chiefs+12145%————
SpreadPHI by 3.7
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−3.7our margin————
KCKansas City Chiefs+3.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.6
Over45.6our total————
Under45.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Eagles by 3.7 expected
Philadelphia Eagles by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 31 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 28 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 25 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 24 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 23 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 21 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 17 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 16 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 14 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 10 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 9 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 7 points: 5%Philadelphia Eagles by 6 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 5 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 4 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 3 points: 9%Philadelphia Eagles by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 1 point: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 2 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 3 points: 7%Kansas City Chiefs by 4 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 5 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 6 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 7 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 8 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 9 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 10 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 11 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 12 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 13 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 14 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 15 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 16 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 17 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 18 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 19 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 20 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 21 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 22 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 23 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 24 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 25 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 26 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 27 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 28 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 29 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 30 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 31 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 32 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 33 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 34 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 35 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 36 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 37 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 38 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 39 points: <1%
← PHI wins byKC wins by →
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 3 or more57%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 7 or more38%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 10 or more30%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.6 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.568%
Total over 45.548%
Total over 52.530%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
PHIJalen Hurts · last 3 games: 77% completions, 206 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTstarted
KCPatrick Mahomes · last 3 games: 65% completions, 253 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·KC
Sep 4, 2025 vs DAL
last game
Sep 5, 2025 at LAC
9 days
days of rest
8 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
PHI·KC
+0.96
rating (0 = average)
+0.45
24.0
points / game
21.0
20.0
points allowed / game
27.0
1−0
season record
0−1
1−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−1
W1
streak
L1
9−1
last 10
7−3
302
total yards / game
347
4.9
yards / play
6.0
144
passing yards / game
249
158
rushing yards / game
98
20.0
first downs / game
18.0
0.0
turnovers / game
0.0

Rating Trend

PHI · KC · 2 days
Philadelphia EaglesKansas City Chiefs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 4 meetings · KC 2−2
Feb 9, 2025at PHIPHI 40 − 22post
Nov 20, 2023at KCPHI 21 − 17
Feb 12, 2023at PHIKC 38 − 35post
Oct 3, 2021at PHIKC 42 − 30

PHI · Last 10

9−1 · streak W7
Sep 4, 2025vs DAL24 − 20W
Feb 9, 2025vs KC40 − 22W
Jan 26, 2025vs WSH55 − 23W
Jan 19, 2025vs LAR28 − 22W
Jan 12, 2025vs GB22 − 10W
Jan 5, 2025vs NYG20 − 13W
Dec 29, 2024vs DAL41 − 7W
Dec 22, 2024at WSH33 − 36L
Dec 15, 2024vs PIT27 − 13W
Dec 8, 2024vs CAR22 − 16W

KC · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Sep 5, 2025at LAC21 − 27L
Feb 9, 2025at PHI22 − 40L
Jan 26, 2025vs BUF32 − 29W
Jan 18, 2025vs HOU23 − 14W
Jan 5, 2025at DEN0 − 38L
Dec 25, 2024at PIT29 − 10W
Dec 21, 2024vs HOU27 − 19W
Dec 15, 2024at CLE21 − 7W
Dec 8, 2024vs LAC19 − 17W
Nov 29, 2024vs LV19 − 17W