bayesRatings

49ers at Saints

NFL · Sunday, Sep 14 · 12:00 PM CT · Caesars Superdome · Final SF 26 – NO 21
← NFL / Sep 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SF6103726
NO077721
Team box
SF·NO
344
total yards
307
267
passing yards
186
77
rushing yards
121
23
first downs
21
8-15
third downs
4-11
1
turnovers
1
30:45
time of possession
29:15
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Mac JonesSF26/3927930
Spencer RattlerNO25/3420730
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Christian McCaffreySF13550
Alvin KamaraNO21990
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jauan JenningsSF5891
Chris OlaveNO6540

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +12
SF +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 0 · SF 12lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 55%, NO 45% · Updated Sep 14, 2025

Expected margin
SF by 2.1
Expected score
SF 22.1 – 20.0 NO
Expected total
42.1
49ersThe matchupSaints
−121Our fair odds+121
22.1Expected points20.0
+0.07Power rating−0.44
17.0Points / game13.0
13.0Allowed / game20.0
384Total yards / game315
5.3Yards / play4.6
265Passing yards / game208
1−0Season record0−1
3−7Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · NO chance
Our model fair54.8%45.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco 49ers−12155%————
NONew Orleans Saints+12145%————
SpreadSF by 2.1
SFSan Francisco 49ers−2.1our margin————
NONew Orleans Saints+2.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 42.1
Over42.1our total————
Under42.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Francisco 49ers by 2.1 expected
San Francisco 49ers by 38 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 37 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 36 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 35 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 34 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 33 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 32 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 31 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 30 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 29 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 28 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 27 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 26 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 25 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 24 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 23 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 22 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 21 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 20 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 19 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 18 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 17 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 16 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 15 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 14 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 13 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 12 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 11 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 10 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 9 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 8 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 7 points: 5%San Francisco 49ers by 6 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 5 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 4 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 3 points: 9%San Francisco 49ers by 2 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New Orleans Saints by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Saints by 2 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 3 points: 7%New Orleans Saints by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 6 points: 4%New Orleans Saints by 7 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 17 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 23 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 24 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 38 points: <1%
← SF wins byNO wins by →
San Francisco 49ers wins by 3 or more52%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 7 or more34%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 10 or more26%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

42.1 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 35.568%
Total over 42.547%
Total over 49.528%
Total from 36 to 4940%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
SFMac Jones · last 3 games: 65% completions, 215 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted
NOSpencer Rattler · last 3 games: 59% completions, 224 yds/game, 2 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·NO
Sep 7, 2025 at SEA
last game
Sep 7, 2025 vs ARI
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
SF·NO
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.44
17.0
points / game
13.0
13.0
points allowed / game
20.0
1−0
season record
0−1
0−0
home record
0−1
1−0
away record
0−0
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
3−7
384
total yards / game
315
5.3
yards / play
4.6
265
passing yards / game
208
119
rushing yards / game
107
24.0
first downs / game
21.0
2.0
turnovers / game
0.0

Rating Trend

SF · NO · 2 days
San Francisco 49ersNew Orleans Saints
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · NO 0−1
Nov 27, 2022at SFSF 13 − 0

SF · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Sep 7, 2025at SEA17 − 13W
Jan 5, 2025at ARI24 − 47L
Dec 30, 2024vs DET34 − 40L
Dec 22, 2024at MIA17 − 29L
Dec 12, 2024vs LAR6 − 12L
Dec 8, 2024vs CHI38 − 13W
Dec 1, 2024at BUF10 − 35L
Nov 24, 2024at GB10 − 38L
Nov 17, 2024vs SEA17 − 20L
Nov 10, 2024at TB23 − 20W

NO · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
Sep 7, 2025vs ARI13 − 20L
Jan 5, 2025at TB19 − 27L
Dec 29, 2024vs LV10 − 25L
Dec 23, 2024at GB0 − 34L
Dec 15, 2024vs WSH19 − 20L
Dec 8, 2024at NYG14 − 11W
Dec 1, 2024vs LAR14 − 21L
Nov 17, 2024vs CLE35 − 14W
Nov 10, 2024vs ATL20 − 17W
Nov 3, 2024at CAR22 − 23L