bayesRatings

Seahawks at Steelers

NFL · Sunday, Sep 14 · 12:00 PM CT · Acrisure Stadium · Final SEA 31 – PIT 17
← NFL / Sep 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SEA7071731
PIT680317
Team box
SEA·PIT
395
total yards
267
278
passing yards
195
117
rushing yards
72
21
first downs
13
6-14
third downs
5-15
2
turnovers
2
31:17
time of possession
28:43
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Sam DarnoldSEA22/3329522
Aaron RodgersPIT18/3320312
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kenneth Walker IIISEA131051
Jaylen WarrenPIT14480
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA81030
Jaylen WarrenPIT4860

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +14
SEA +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PIT 7 · SEA 14lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 40%, PIT 60% · Updated Sep 14, 2025

Expected margin
PIT by 3.4
Expected score
PIT 22.6 – 19.2 SEA
Expected total
41.8
SeahawksThe matchupSteelers
+152Our fair odds−152
19.2Expected points22.6
−0.01Power rating+0.15
13.0Points / game34.0
17.0Allowed / game32.0
230Total yards / game271
4.6Yards / play5.0
146Passing yards / game218
0−1Season record1−0
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · PIT chance
Our model fair39.7%60.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Seahawks+15240%————
PITPittsburgh Steelers−15260%————
SpreadPIT by 3.4
SEASeattle Seahawks+3.4our margin————
PITPittsburgh Steelers−3.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 41.8
Over41.8our total————
Under41.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Steelers by 3.4 expected
Seattle Seahawks by 43 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 42 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 41 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 40 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 39 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 38 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 37 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 36 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 35 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 34 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 33 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 32 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 31 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 30 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 29 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 28 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 27 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 26 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 25 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 24 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 23 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 22 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 21 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 20 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 19 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 18 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 17 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 16 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 15 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 14 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 13 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 12 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 11 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 10 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 9 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 8 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 7 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 6 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 5 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 4 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 3 points: 8%Seattle Seahawks by 2 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 point: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 points: 7%Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 8 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 11 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 13 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 14 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 15 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 16 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 17 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 18 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 19 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 20 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 21 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 22 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 23 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 24 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 26 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 27 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 28 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 29 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 31 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 32 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 33 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 34 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 35 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 36 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 37 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 38 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 39 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 40 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 41 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 42 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 43 points: <1%
← SEA wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 3 or more53%
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 7 or more37%
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 10 or more28%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

41.8 expected
8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 34.569%
Total over 41.549%
Total over 48.529%
Total from 35 to 4840%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
SEASam Darnold · last 3 games: 57% completions, 187 yds/game, 1 TD, 1 INTstarted
PITAaron Rodgers · last 3 games: 68% completions, 210 yds/game, 8 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·PIT
Sep 7, 2025 vs SF
last game
Sep 7, 2025 at NYJ
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
SEA·PIT
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.15
13.0
points / game
34.0
17.0
points allowed / game
32.0
0−1
season record
1−0
0−1
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
1−0
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
4−6
230
total yards / game
271
4.6
yards / play
5.0
146
passing yards / game
218
84
rushing yards / game
53
14.0
first downs / game
19.0
2.0
turnovers / game
0.0

Rating Trend

SEA · PIT · 2 days
Seattle SeahawksPittsburgh Steelers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · PIT 2−0
Dec 31, 2023at SEAPIT 30 − 23
Oct 17, 2021at PITPIT 23 − 20

SEA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Sep 7, 2025vs SF13 − 17L
Jan 5, 2025at LAR30 − 25W
Dec 26, 2024at CHI6 − 3W
Dec 22, 2024vs MIN24 − 27L
Dec 15, 2024vs GB13 − 30L
Dec 8, 2024at ARI30 − 18W
Dec 1, 2024at NYJ26 − 21W
Nov 24, 2024vs ARI16 − 6W
Nov 17, 2024at SF20 − 17W
Nov 3, 2024vs LAR20 − 26L

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 7, 2025at NYJ34 − 32W
Jan 11, 2025at BAL14 − 28L
Jan 4, 2025vs CIN17 − 19L
Dec 25, 2024vs KC10 − 29L
Dec 21, 2024at BAL17 − 34L
Dec 15, 2024at PHI13 − 27L
Dec 8, 2024vs CLE27 − 14W
Dec 1, 2024at CIN44 − 38W
Nov 21, 2024at CLE19 − 24L
Nov 17, 2024vs BAL18 − 16W