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Chargers at Raiders

NFL · Monday, Sep 15 · 9:00 PM CT · Allegiant Stadium · Final LAC 20 – LV 9
← NFL / Sep 15, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAC1073020
LV33039
Team box
LAC·LV
317
total yards
218
236
passing yards
150
81
rushing yards
68
15
first downs
15
4-11
third downs
9-18
1
turnovers
3
28:17
time of possession
31:43
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Justin HerbertLAC19/2724220
Geno SmithLV24/4318003
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Justin HerbertLAC9310
Ashton JeantyLV11430
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Quentin JohnstonLAC3711
Jakobi MeyersLV6680

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LV +14
LAC +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LV 0 · LAC 14lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAC 56%, LV 44% · Updated Sep 15, 2025

Expected margin
LAC by 4.5
Expected score
LAC 22.0 – 17.5 LV
Expected total
39.5
ChargersThe matchupRaiders
−129Our fair odds+129
22.0Expected points17.5
+0.28Power rating−0.29
27.0Points / game20.0
21.0Allowed / game13.0
394Total yards / game389
6.4Yards / play6.3
304Passing yards / game333
1−0Season record1−0
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAC chance · LV chance
Our model fair56.3%43.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LACLos Angeles Chargers−12956%————
LVLas Vegas Raiders+12944%————
SpreadLAC by 4.5
LACLos Angeles Chargers−4.5our margin————
LVLas Vegas Raiders+4.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 39.5
Over39.5our total————
Under39.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Chargers by 4.5 expected
Los Angeles Chargers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 34 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 28 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 24 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 23 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 21 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 17 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 14 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 7 points: 5%Los Angeles Chargers by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 3 points: 9%Los Angeles Chargers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 1 point: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 2 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 3 points: 6%Las Vegas Raiders by 4 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 5 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 6 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 7 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 8 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 9 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 10 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 11 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 12 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 13 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 14 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 15 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 16 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 17 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 18 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 19 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 20 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 21 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 22 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 23 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 24 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 25 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 26 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 27 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 28 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 29 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 30 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 31 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 32 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 33 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 34 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 35 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 36 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 37 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 38 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 39 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 40 points: <1%
← LAC wins byLV wins by →
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 3 or more59%
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 7 or more40%
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 10 or more32%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

39.5 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.569%
Total over 39.548%
Total over 46.528%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LACJustin Herbert · last 3 games: 66% completions, 302 yds/game, 6 TD, 4 INTstarted
LVGeno Smith · last 3 games: 73% completions, 248 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAC·LV
Sep 5, 2025 vs KC
last game
Sep 7, 2025 at NE
9 days
days of rest
7 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
LAC·LV
+0.28
rating (0 = average)
−0.29
27.0
points / game
20.0
21.0
points allowed / game
13.0
1−0
season record
1−0
1−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
1−0
W1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
3−7
394
total yards / game
389
6.4
yards / play
6.3
304
passing yards / game
333
90
rushing yards / game
56
22.0
first downs / game
21.0
0.0
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

LAC · LV · 3 days
Los Angeles ChargersLas Vegas Raiders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · LV 3−5
Jan 5, 2025at LVLAC 34 − 20
Sep 8, 2024at LACLAC 22 − 10
Dec 14, 2023at LVLV 63 − 21
Oct 1, 2023at LACLAC 24 − 17
Dec 4, 2022at LVLV 27 − 20
Sep 11, 2022at LACLAC 24 − 19
Jan 9, 2022at LVLV 35 − 32
Oct 4, 2021at LACLAC 28 − 14

LAC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 5, 2025vs KC27 − 21W
Jan 11, 2025at HOU12 − 32L
Jan 5, 2025at LV34 − 20W
Dec 28, 2024at NE40 − 7W
Dec 19, 2024vs DEN34 − 27W
Dec 15, 2024vs TB17 − 40L
Dec 8, 2024at KC17 − 19L
Dec 1, 2024at ATL17 − 13W
Nov 25, 2024vs BAL23 − 30L
Nov 17, 2024vs CIN34 − 27W

LV · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Sep 7, 2025at NE20 − 13W
Jan 5, 2025vs LAC20 − 34L
Dec 29, 2024at NO25 − 10W
Dec 22, 2024vs JAX19 − 14W
Dec 16, 2024vs ATL9 − 15L
Dec 8, 2024at TB13 − 28L
Nov 29, 2024at KC17 − 19L
Nov 24, 2024vs DEN19 − 29L
Nov 17, 2024at MIA19 − 34L
Nov 3, 2024at CIN24 − 41L