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Buccaneers at Texans

NFL · Monday, Sep 15 · 6:00 PM CT · Reliant Stadium · Final TB 20 – HOU 19
← NFL / Sep 15, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TB770620
HOU1000919
Team box
TB·HOU
360
total yards
266
191
passing yards
182
169
rushing yards
84
25
first downs
12
6-14
third downs
2-9
0
turnovers
0
37:09
time of possession
22:51
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Baker MayfieldTB25/3821520
C.J. StroudHOU13/2420710
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Bucky IrvingTB17710
Nick ChubbHOU12431
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Mike EvansTB5560
Nico CollinsHOU3521

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +7
TB +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 7 · TB 4lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 50%, HOU 50% · Updated Sep 15, 2025

Expected margin
TB by 2.0
Expected score
TB 22.9 – 20.9 HOU
Expected total
43.9
BuccaneersThe matchupTexans
+101Our fair odds−101
22.9Expected points20.9
+0.33Power rating+0.05
23.0Points / game9.0
20.0Allowed / game14.0
260Total yards / game265
4.6Yards / play4.6
159Passing yards / game151
1−0Season record0−1
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · HOU chance
Our model fair49.8%50.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers+10150%————
HOUHouston Texans−10150%————
SpreadTB by 2.0
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−2our margin————
HOUHouston Texans+2our margin————
Totalwe expect 43.9
Over43.9our total————
Under43.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2.0 expected
Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 38 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 37 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 36 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 35 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 34 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 33 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 32 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 31 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 30 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 29 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 28 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 27 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 26 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 25 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 24 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 23 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 22 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 21 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 19 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 18 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 17 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 16 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 12 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7 points: 5%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 points: 9%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Houston Texans by 1 point: 2%Houston Texans by 2 points: 3%Houston Texans by 3 points: 7%Houston Texans by 4 points: 2%Houston Texans by 5 points: 2%Houston Texans by 6 points: 4%Houston Texans by 7 points: 3%Houston Texans by 8 points: 2%Houston Texans by 9 points: 1%Houston Texans by 10 points: 2%Houston Texans by 11 points: 1%Houston Texans by 12 points: 1%Houston Texans by 13 points: 1%Houston Texans by 14 points: 1%Houston Texans by 15 points: 1%Houston Texans by 16 points: 1%Houston Texans by 17 points: 2%Houston Texans by 18 points: 1%Houston Texans by 19 points: <1%Houston Texans by 20 points: 1%Houston Texans by 21 points: 1%Houston Texans by 22 points: <1%Houston Texans by 23 points: 1%Houston Texans by 24 points: 1%Houston Texans by 25 points: <1%Houston Texans by 26 points: <1%Houston Texans by 27 points: <1%Houston Texans by 28 points: <1%Houston Texans by 29 points: <1%Houston Texans by 30 points: <1%Houston Texans by 31 points: <1%Houston Texans by 32 points: <1%Houston Texans by 33 points: <1%Houston Texans by 34 points: <1%Houston Texans by 35 points: <1%Houston Texans by 36 points: <1%Houston Texans by 37 points: <1%Houston Texans by 38 points: <1%
← TB wins byHOU wins by →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 3 or more52%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 7 or more33%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 10 or more25%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.9 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.569%
Total over 43.549%
Total over 50.530%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
TBBaker Mayfield · last 3 games: 65% completions, 191 yds/game, 7 TD, 1 INTstarted
HOUC.J. Stroud · last 3 games: 68% completions, 238 yds/game, 1 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·HOU
Sep 7, 2025 at ATL
last game
Sep 7, 2025 at LAR
7 days
days of rest
7 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
TB·HOU
+0.33
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
23.0
points / game
9.0
20.0
points allowed / game
14.0
1−0
season record
0−1
0−0
home record
0−0
1−0
away record
0−1
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
260
total yards / game
265
4.6
yards / play
4.6
159
passing yards / game
151
101
rushing yards / game
114
16.0
first downs / game
18.0
0.0
turnovers / game
2.0

Rating Trend

TB · HOU · 3 days
Tampa Bay BuccaneersHouston Texans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · HOU 1−0
Nov 5, 2023at HOUHOU 39 − 37

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Sep 7, 2025at ATL23 − 20W
Jan 12, 2025vs WSH20 − 23L
Jan 5, 2025vs NO27 − 19W
Dec 29, 2024vs CAR48 − 14W
Dec 22, 2024at DAL24 − 26L
Dec 15, 2024at LAC40 − 17W
Dec 8, 2024vs LV28 − 13W
Dec 1, 2024at CAR26 − 23W
Nov 24, 2024at NYG30 − 7W
Nov 10, 2024vs SF20 − 23L

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Sep 7, 2025at LAR9 − 14L
Jan 18, 2025at KC14 − 23L
Jan 11, 2025vs LAC32 − 12W
Jan 5, 2025at TEN23 − 14W
Dec 25, 2024vs BAL2 − 31L
Dec 21, 2024at KC19 − 27L
Dec 15, 2024vs MIA20 − 12W
Dec 1, 2024at JAX23 − 20W
Nov 24, 2024vs TEN27 − 32L
Nov 18, 2024at DAL34 − 10W