bayesRatings

Lightning at Canucks

NHL · Thursday, Mar 19 · 9:00 PM CT · Rogers Arena · Final TB 6 – VAN 2
← NHL / Mar 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
TB1326
VAN0112
Team box
TB·VAN
31
shots
21
0 of 1
power play
0 of 2
52.6
faceoff %
47.4
12
hits
25
14
blocked shots
6
4
penalty minutes
2
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Nikita KucherovTB123
Anthony CirelliTB122
Darren RaddyshTB117
Brandon HagelTB114
Erik CernakTB021
Marco RossiVAN021
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Andrei VasilevskiyTB2119.905
Kevin LankinenVAN3125.806

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
VAN +4
TB +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: VAN 0 · TB 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 67%, VAN 33% · Updated Mar 19

Expected margin
TB by 1.5
Expected score
TB 4.0 – 2.5 VAN
Expected total
6.4
LightningThe matchupCanucks
−203Our fair odds+203
4.0Expected goals2.5
+0.31Power rating−0.57
3.6Goals / game2.6
2.8Allowed / game3.7
28.1Shots / game26.3
47.3Faceoff %49.1
20.3Hits / game21.3
41−25Season record21−46
3−7Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · VAN chance
Our model fair67.0%33.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Lightning−20367%————
VANVancouver Canucks+20333%————
SpreadTB by 1.5
TBTampa Bay Lightning−1.5our margin————
VANVancouver Canucks+1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 1.5 expected
Tampa Bay Lightning by 8 goals: <1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 7 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 6%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 13%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 20%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 13%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 16%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 19%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 5%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 4%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 2%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 7 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 8 goals: <1%
← TB wins byVAN wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more54%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more41%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more11%
Decided by one goal35%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.560%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .912 save %, 2.42 GAAstarted
VANKevin Lankinen G · last 5 starts: .891 save %, 3.12 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·VAN
Mar 17 at SEA
last game
Mar 17 vs FLA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 66+ games
TB·VAN
+0.31
rating (0 = average)
−0.57
3.6
goals / game
2.6
2.8
goals allowed / game
3.7
41−25
season record
21−46
20−12
home record
8−26
21−13
away record
13−20
W1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
3−7
28.1
shots / game
26.3
47.3
faceoff %
49.1
20.3
hits / game
21.3
12.5
blocked shots / game
13.8
4.0
takeaways / game
4.5
14.6
giveaways / game
15.7

Rating Trend

TB · VAN · 134 days
Tampa Bay LightningVancouver Canucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · VAN 2−7
Nov 16, 2025at TBVAN 6 − 2
Dec 8, 2024at VANTB 4 − 2
Oct 15, 2024at TBTB 4 − 1
Dec 12, 2023at VANVAN 4 − 1
Oct 19, 2023at TBTB 4 − 3
Jan 18, 2023at VANTB 5 − 2
Jan 12, 2023at TBTB 5 − 4
Mar 13, 2022at VANTB 2 − 1
Jan 13, 2022at TBTB 4 − 2

TB · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Mar 17at SEA6 − 2W
Mar 14vs CAR2 − 4L
Mar 12vs DET4 − 1W
Mar 10vs CBJ2 − 5L
Mar 8at BUF7 − 8L
Mar 7at TOR5 − 2W
Mar 5at WPG1 − 4L
Mar 3at MIN1 − 5L
Feb 28vs BUF2 − 6L
Feb 26at CAR4 − 5L

VAN · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Mar 17vs FLA5 − 2W
Mar 14vs SEA2 − 5L
Mar 12vs NSH4 − 3W
Mar 9vs OTT0 − 2L
Mar 7at WPG2 − 3L
Mar 6at CHI6 − 3W
Mar 4vs CAR4 − 6L
Mar 2vs DAL1 − 6L
Feb 28at SEA1 − 5L
Feb 25vs WPG2 − 3L