bayesRatings

Red Wings at Sabres

NHL · Friday, Mar 27 · 6:00 PM CT · KeyBank Center · Final DET 5 – BUF 2
← NHL / Mar 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
DET3025
BUF0112
Team box
DET·BUF
20
shots
30
2 of 6
power play
0 of 3
55.8
faceoff %
44.2
11
hits
27
14
blocked shots
6
8
penalty minutes
14
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Alex DeBrincatDET124
Patrick KaneDET112
Moritz SeiderDET021
Tage ThompsonBUF104
Rasmus DahlinBUF102
Lucas RaymondDET102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
John GibsonDET3028.933
Alex LyonBUF1915.789

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BUF +3
DET +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: BUF 0 · DET 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 40%, BUF 60% · Updated Mar 27

Expected margin
BUF by 0.8
Expected score
BUF 3.5 – 2.8 DET
Expected total
6.3
Red WingsThe matchupSabres
+151Our fair odds−151
2.8Expected goals3.5
+0.01Power rating+0.28
2.9Goals / game3.5
3.0Allowed / game2.9
28.4Shots / game28.0
51.0Faceoff %45.5
17.8Hits / game18.8
38−33Season record44−28
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · BUF chance
Our model fair39.8%60.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Red Wings+15140%————
BUFBuffalo Sabres−15160%————
SpreadBUF by 0.8
DETDetroit Red Wings+0.8our margin————
BUFBuffalo Sabres−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Sabres by 0.8 expected
Detroit Red Wings by 7 goals: <1%Detroit Red Wings by 6 goals: <1%Detroit Red Wings by 5 goals: 1%Detroit Red Wings by 4 goals: 3%Detroit Red Wings by 3 goals: 7%Detroit Red Wings by 2 goals: 7%Detroit Red Wings by 1 goal: 21%Buffalo Sabres by 1 goal: 19%Buffalo Sabres by 2 goals: 12%Buffalo Sabres by 3 goals: 16%Buffalo Sabres by 4 goals: 9%Buffalo Sabres by 5 goals: 4%Buffalo Sabres by 6 goals: 1%Buffalo Sabres by 7 goals: <1%
← DET wins byBUF wins by →
Buffalo Sabres wins by 2 or more42%
Buffalo Sabres wins by 3 or more30%
Detroit Red Wings wins by 2 or more18%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.546%
Total over 7.528%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
DETJohn Gibson G · last 5 starts: .908 save %, 2.42 GAAstarted
BUFAlex Lyon G · last 5 starts: .891 save %, 2.55 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·BUF
Mar 24 vs OTT
last game
Mar 25 vs BOS
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 71+ games
DET·BUF
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.28
2.9
goals / game
3.5
3.0
goals allowed / game
2.9
38−33
season record
44−28
20−16
home record
22−13
18−17
away record
22−15
L2
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
7−3
28.4
shots / game
28.0
51.0
faceoff %
45.5
17.8
hits / game
18.8
16.3
blocked shots / game
14.4
4.4
takeaways / game
5.1
15.3
giveaways / game
15.5

Rating Trend

DET · BUF · 142 days
Detroit Red WingsBuffalo Sabres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BUF 4−6
Nov 15, 2025at DETBUF 5 − 4 OT
Oct 22, 2025at BUFBUF 4 − 2
Mar 12, 2025at DETDET 7 − 3
Dec 9, 2024at BUFDET 6 − 5 SO
Nov 2, 2024at DETDET 2 − 1
Oct 26, 2024at BUFBUF 5 − 3
Apr 7, 2024at DETDET 3 − 1
Mar 16, 2024at DETDET 4 − 1
Mar 12, 2024at BUFBUF 7 − 3
Dec 5, 2023at BUFDET 5 − 3

DET · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Mar 24vs OTT2 − 3L
Mar 21vs BOS2 − 4L
Mar 19vs MTL3 − 1W
Mar 16vs CGY5 − 2W
Mar 14at DAL2 − 3L
Mar 12at TB1 − 4L
Mar 10at FLA3 − 4L
Mar 8at NJ3 − 0W
Mar 6vs FLA1 − 3L
Mar 4vs VGK3 − 4L

BUF · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Mar 25vs BOS3 − 4L
Mar 22at ANA5 − 6L
Mar 21at LA4 − 1W
Mar 19at SJ5 − 0W
Mar 17at VGK2 − 0W
Mar 14vs TOR3 − 2W
Mar 12vs WSH1 − 2L
Mar 10vs SJ6 − 3W
Mar 8vs TB8 − 7W
Mar 7vs NSH3 − 2W