bayesRatings

Sabres at Rangers

NHL · Wednesday, Apr 8 · 6:00 PM CT · Madison Square Garden · Final BUF 5 – NYR 3
← NHL / Apr 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
BUF2035
NYR1203
Team box
BUF·NYR
27
shots
20
0 of 4
power play
2 of 3
44.2
faceoff %
55.8
19
hits
26
19
blocked shots
11
6
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Zach BensonBUF203
Alexis LafreniereNYR202
Jason ZuckerBUF114
Ryan McLeodBUF112
Adam FoxNYR111
Alex TuchBUF101
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Ukko-Pekka LuukkonenBUF2017.850
Igor ShesterkinNYR2622.846

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYR +3
BUF +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: NYR 1 · BUF 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BUF 53%, NYR 47% · Updated Apr 8

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BUF 3.3 – 3.0 NYR
Expected total
6.3
SabresThe matchupRangers
−113Our fair odds+113
3.3Expected goals3.0
+0.21Power rating−0.06
3.5Goals / game2.9
3.0Allowed / game3.1
28.3Shots / game25.3
45.8Faceoff %54.5
19.2Hits / game25.8
47−31Season record33−45
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BUF chance · NYR chance
Our model fair53.1%46.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BUFBuffalo Sabres−11353%————
NYRNew York Rangers+11347%————
Spreadabout even
BUFBuffalo Sabres−0.3our margin————
NYRNew York Rangers+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Buffalo Sabres by 6 goals: 1%Buffalo Sabres by 5 goals: 3%Buffalo Sabres by 4 goals: 7%Buffalo Sabres by 3 goals: 13%Buffalo Sabres by 2 goals: 11%Buffalo Sabres by 1 goal: 19%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 22%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 9%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 9%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 4%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 1%New York Rangers by 6 goals: <1%
← BUF wins byNYR wins by →
Buffalo Sabres wins by 2 or more34%
Buffalo Sabres wins by 3 or more23%
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.547%
Total over 7.528%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
BUFUkko-Pekka Luukkonen G · last 5 starts: .907 save %, 2.57 GAAstarted
NYRIgor Shesterkin G · last 5 starts: .912 save %, 2.03 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BUF·NYR
Apr 6 vs TB
last game
Apr 5 vs WSH
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 78+ games
BUF·NYR
+0.21
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
3.5
goals / game
2.9
3.0
goals allowed / game
3.1
47−31
season record
33−45
25−14
home record
14−26
22−17
away record
19−19
W1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
5−5
28.3
shots / game
25.3
45.8
faceoff %
54.5
19.2
hits / game
25.8
14.2
blocked shots / game
14.5
5.0
takeaways / game
4.5
15.6
giveaways / game
15.2

Rating Trend

BUF · NYR · 154 days
Buffalo SabresNew York Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYR 4−6
Jan 8at NYRBUF 5 − 2
Oct 9, 2025at BUFNYR 4 − 0
Feb 22, 2025at BUFBUF 8 − 2
Dec 11, 2024at BUFNYR 3 − 2
Nov 7, 2024at NYRBUF 6 − 1
Dec 23, 2023at NYRNYR 4 − 3 OT
Nov 27, 2023at NYRBUF 5 − 1
Oct 12, 2023at BUFNYR 5 − 1
Apr 10, 2023at NYRBUF 3 − 2 SO
Mar 31, 2023at BUFBUF 3 − 2 OT

BUF · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 6vs TB4 − 2W
Apr 4at WSH2 − 6L
Apr 2at OTT1 − 4L
Mar 31vs NYI4 − 3W
Mar 28vs SEA3 − 2W
Mar 27vs DET2 − 5L
Mar 25vs BOS3 − 4L
Mar 22at ANA5 − 6L
Mar 21at LA4 − 1W
Mar 19at SJ5 − 0W

NYR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 5vs WSH8 − 1W
Apr 4vs DET4 − 1W
Apr 2vs MTL2 − 3L
Mar 31vs NJ4 − 1W
Mar 29vs FLA3 − 1W
Mar 27vs CHI6 − 1W
Mar 25at TOR3 − 4L
Mar 23vs OTT1 − 2L
Mar 22vs WPG2 − 3L
Mar 19at CBJ3 − 6L