bayesRatings

Capitals at Rangers

NHL · Sunday, Apr 5 · 6:00 PM CT · Madison Square Garden · Final WSH 1 – NYR 8
← NHL / Apr 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
WSH1001
NYR1528
Team box
WSH·NYR
21
shots
33
0 of 3
power play
2 of 4
35.0
faceoff %
65.0
26
hits
23
20
blocked shots
13
23
penalty minutes
21
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Will CuylleNYR306
Adam FoxNYR121
Mika ZibanejadNYR032
Vincent TrocheckNYR113
J.T. MillerNYR112
Conor ShearyNYR103
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Charlie LindgrenWSH3325.758
Igor ShesterkinNYR2120.952

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYR +7
WSH +7
P1P2P3
largest lead: NYR 7 · WSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 52%, NYR 48% · Updated Apr 5

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
WSH 3.1 – 2.9 NYR
Expected total
6.0
CapitalsThe matchupRangers
−109Our fair odds+109
3.1Expected goals2.9
+0.10Power rating−0.13
3.2Goals / game2.9
3.0Allowed / game3.1
28.3Shots / game25.2
49.4Faceoff %54.3
19.8Hits / game25.8
39−38Season record32−45
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · NYR chance
Our model fair52.2%47.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Capitals−10952%————
NYRNew York Rangers+10948%————
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Capitals−0.2our margin————
NYRNew York Rangers+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Capitals by 6 goals: <1%Washington Capitals by 5 goals: 2%Washington Capitals by 4 goals: 6%Washington Capitals by 3 goals: 12%Washington Capitals by 2 goals: 10%Washington Capitals by 1 goal: 21%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 22%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 9%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 10%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 5%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 2%New York Rangers by 6 goals: <1%
← WSH wins byNYR wins by →
Washington Capitals wins by 2 or more32%
Washington Capitals wins by 3 or more21%
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.542%
Total over 7.523%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
WSHCharlie Lindgren G · last 5 starts: .880 save %, 3.74 GAAstarted
NYRIgor Shesterkin G · last 5 starts: .913 save %, 2.24 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·NYR
Apr 4 vs BUF
last game
Apr 4 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 77+ games
WSH·NYR
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
3.2
goals / game
2.9
3.0
goals allowed / game
3.1
39−38
season record
32−45
24−16
home record
13−26
15−22
away record
19−19
W1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
4−6
28.3
shots / game
25.2
49.4
faceoff %
54.3
19.8
hits / game
25.8
15.9
blocked shots / game
14.5
4.6
takeaways / game
4.5
15.4
giveaways / game
15.1

Rating Trend

WSH · NYR · 151 days
Washington CapitalsNew York Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYR 5−5
Dec 31, 2025at WSHWSH 6 − 3
Dec 23, 2025at WSHNYR 7 − 3
Oct 12, 2025at NYRWSH 1 − 0
Mar 5, 2025at NYRWSH 3 − 2 OT
Jan 4, 2025at WSHWSH 7 − 4
Oct 29, 2024at WSHWSH 5 − 3
Apr 28, 2024at WSHNYR 4 − 2post
Apr 26, 2024at WSHNYR 3 − 1post
Apr 23, 2024at NYRNYR 4 − 3post
Apr 21, 2024at NYRNYR 4 − 1post

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 4vs BUF6 − 2W
Apr 2at NJ3 − 7L
Mar 31vs PHI6 − 4W
Mar 28at VGK5 − 4W
Mar 26at UTAH7 − 4W
Mar 24at STL0 − 3L
Mar 22vs COL2 − 3L
Mar 20vs NJ2 − 1W
Mar 18vs OTT4 − 1W
Mar 14vs BOS2 − 3L

NYR · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 4vs DET4 − 1W
Apr 2vs MTL2 − 3L
Mar 31vs NJ4 − 1W
Mar 29vs FLA3 − 1W
Mar 27vs CHI6 − 1W
Mar 25at TOR3 − 4L
Mar 23vs OTT1 − 2L
Mar 22vs WPG2 − 3L
Mar 19at CBJ3 − 6L
Mar 18vs NJ3 − 6L