bayesRatings

Athletics at Blue Jays

MLB · Sunday, Mar 29 · 12:37 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final ATH 2 – TOR 5
← MLB / Mar 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH000020000250
TOR10211000560
Team box
ATH·TOR
5
hits
6
1
home runs
3
1
walks
3
15
strikeouts
7
116
pitches thrown
133
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Max MuncyATH1-4112
Jesus SanchezTOR1-3112
George SpringerTOR1-4111
Kazuma OkamotoTOR1-4111
Jacob WilsonATH2-4100
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Luis Morales (L)ATH4.15525
Eric Lauer (W)TOR5.13219
Jeff Hoffman (S)TOR1.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +4
ATH +4
123456789
largest lead: TOR 4 · ATH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 41%, TOR 59% · Updated Mar 29

Expected margin
TOR by 1.0
Expected score
TOR 5.4 – 4.4 ATH
Expected total
9.8
AthleticsThe matchupBlue Jays
+142Our fair odds−142
4.4Expected runs5.4
−0.08Power rating+0.18
4.5Runs / game5.5
5.5Allowed / game4.5
5.5Hits / game10.5
1.50Home runs / game0.50
3.5Walks drawn / game6.0
0−2Season record2−0
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · TOR chance
Our model fair41.3%58.7%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:37 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+14241%+12943.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−14259%−15460.7%———
SpreadTOR by 1.0
ATHAthletics+1our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.8
Over9.8our total————
Under9.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 1.0 expected
Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 1 run: 12%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 14%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 15 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more45%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more35%
Athletics wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.564%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHLuis Morales SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.02 ERA, 11 Kstarted
TOREric Lauer SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 7.11 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·TOR
Mar 28 at TOR
last game
Mar 28 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
2
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
ATH·TOR
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.18
4.5
runs / game
5.5
5.5
runs allowed / game
4.5
0−2
season record
2−0
0−0
home record
2−0
0−2
away record
0−0
L2
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
6−4
5.5
hits / game
10.5
1.50
home runs / game
0.50
3.5
walks drawn / game
6.0
17.5
batter strikeouts / game
5.0
5.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
17.5
0.00
errors / game
0.00

Rating Trend

ATH · TOR · 4 days
AthleticsToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 7−3
Mar 28at TORTOR 8 − 7
Mar 27at TORTOR 3 − 2
Jul 13, 2025at ATHATH 6 − 3
Jul 12, 2025at ATHATH 4 − 3
Jul 11, 2025at ATHTOR 7 − 6
Jun 1, 2025at TORTOR 8 − 4
May 31, 2025at TORTOR 8 − 7
May 30, 2025at TORTOR 11 − 7
May 29, 2025at TORTOR 12 − 0
Aug 11, 2024at TORATH 8 − 4

ATH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Mar 28at TOR7 − 8L
Mar 27at TOR2 − 3L
Sep 28, 2025vs KC2 − 9L
Sep 27, 2025vs KC2 − 4L
Sep 26, 2025vs KC4 − 3W
Sep 25, 2025vs HOU5 − 11L
Sep 24, 2025vs HOU6 − 0W
Sep 23, 2025vs HOU5 − 1W
Sep 21, 2025at PIT0 − 11L
Sep 20, 2025at PIT0 − 2L

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Mar 28vs ATH8 − 7W
Mar 27vs ATH3 − 2W
Nov 1, 2025vs LAD4 − 5L
Oct 31, 2025vs LAD1 − 3L
Oct 29, 2025at LAD6 − 1W
Oct 28, 2025at LAD6 − 2W
Oct 27, 2025at LAD5 − 6L
Oct 25, 2025vs LAD1 − 5L
Oct 24, 2025vs LAD11 − 4W
Oct 20, 2025vs SEA4 − 3W