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Hawks at Magic

NBA · Friday, Oct 24 · 6:00 PM CT · Kia Center · Final ATL 111 – ORL 107
← NBA / Oct 24, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL25262733111
ORL24372521107
Team box
ATL·ORL
41-85
field goals
37-78
8-29
3-pointers
9-31
21-28
free throws
24-37
40
rebounds
45
26
assists
21
16
turnovers
22
58
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Franz WagnerORL352762
Trae YoungATL342516
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL311914
Onyeka OkongwuATL331743
Desmond BaneORL331575
Tristan da SilvaORL241563

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ORL +14
ATL +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ORL 14 · ATL 5lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 41%, ORL 59% · Updated Oct 24, 2025

Expected margin
ORL by 2.9
Expected score
ORL 112.2 – 109.2 ATL
Expected total
221.4
HawksThe matchupMagic
+142Our fair odds−142
109.2Expected points112.2
−0.13Power rating−0.01
118.0Points / game125.0
138.0Allowed / game121.0
42.0FG%47.0
29.03P%40.0
34.0Rebounds / game46.0
0−1Season record1−0
5−5Last 105−5
Eli John Ndiaye · Kristaps Porzingis
Nikola Djurisic · Zaccharie RisacherOutMoritz Wagner

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · ORL chance
Our model fair41.4%58.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks+14241%————
ORLOrlando Magic−14259%————
SpreadORL by 2.9
ATLAtlanta Hawks+2.9our margin————
ORLOrlando Magic−2.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 221.4
Over221.4our total————
Under221.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Orlando Magic by 2.9 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 43 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 44 points: <1%
← ATL wins byORL wins by →
Orlando Magic wins by 5 or more48%
Orlando Magic wins by 10 or more33%
Orlando Magic wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

221.4 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 211.569%
Total over 221.549%
Total over 231.530%
Total from 212 to 23139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GTrae Youngstarted
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GJalen Suggsstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
FFranz Wagnerstarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·ORL
Oct 22, 2025 vs TOR
last game
Oct 22, 2025 vs MIA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
1
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 24, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLEli John Ndiaye · not with teamOut
ATLKristaps Porzingis · flu-like; symptomsOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · not with teamOut
ATLZaccharie Risacher · right ankle; sprainOut
Orlando Magic
ORLMoritz Wagner · left knee; injury recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
ATL·ORL
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
118.0
points / game
125.0
138.0
points allowed / game
121.0
0−1
season record
1−0
0−1
home record
1−0
0−0
away record
0−0
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
42.0
FG%
47.0
29.0
3P%
40.0
34.0
rebounds / game
46.0
25.0
assists / game
23.0
16.0
turnovers / game
15.0
56.0
points in paint / game
56.0

Rating Trend

ATL · ORL · 4 days
Atlanta HawksOrlando Magic
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ORL 4−6
Apr 13, 2025at ATLATL 117 − 105
Apr 8, 2025at ORLORL 119 − 112
Feb 20, 2025at ATLORL 114 − 108
Feb 10, 2025at ORLATL 112 − 106
Feb 25, 2024at ATLATL 109 − 92
Jan 17, 2024at ATLATL 106 − 104
Jan 7, 2024at ORLORL 117 − 110
Nov 9, 2023at ORLATL 120 − 119
Dec 19, 2022at ATLATL 126 − 125
Dec 14, 2022at ORLORL 135 − 124

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Oct 22, 2025vs TOR118 − 138L
Apr 13, 2025vs ORL117 − 105W
Apr 11, 2025at PHI124 − 110W
Apr 10, 2025at BKN133 − 109W
Apr 8, 2025at ORL112 − 119L
Apr 6, 2025vs UTAH147 − 134W
Apr 5, 2025vs NY105 − 121L
Apr 2, 2025at DAL118 − 120L
Apr 1, 2025vs POR113 − 127L
Mar 30, 2025at MIL145 − 124W

ORL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 22, 2025vs MIA125 − 121W
Apr 29, 2025at BOS89 − 120L
Apr 27, 2025vs BOS98 − 107L
Apr 25, 2025vs BOS95 − 93W
Apr 23, 2025at BOS100 − 109L
Apr 20, 2025at BOS86 − 103L
Apr 13, 2025at ATL105 − 117L
Apr 11, 2025at IND129 − 115W
Apr 9, 2025vs BOS96 − 76W
Apr 8, 2025vs ATL119 − 112W