bayesRatings

Pistons at Rockets

NBA · Friday, Oct 24 · 7:00 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final DET 115 – HOU 111
← NBA / Oct 24, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET32312428115
HOU33233025111
Team box
DET·HOU
42-90
field goals
32-83
16-39
3-pointers
10-22
15-23
free throws
37-48
48
rebounds
45
26
assists
15
18
turnovers
14
52
points in paint
38
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin DurantHOU373731
Cade CunninghamDET392179
Ausar ThompsonDET241924
Alperen SengunHOU381777
Duncan RobinsonDET381732
Paul ReedDET191391

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +10
DET +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 6 · DET 10lead changes: 15

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 33%, HOU 67% · Updated Oct 24, 2025

Expected margin
HOU by 6.2
Expected score
HOU 115.8 – 109.6 DET
Expected total
225.4
PistonsThe matchupRockets
+201Our fair odds−201
109.6Expected points115.8
−0.04Power rating+0.44
111.0Points / game124.0
115.0Allowed / game125.0
44.0FG%44.0
29.03P%28.0
46.0Rebounds / game52.0
0−1Season record0−1
3−7Last 103−7
Jaden IveyOutDorian Finney-Smith · Fred VanVleet

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · HOU chance
Our model fair33.2%66.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Pistons+20133%————
HOUHouston Rockets−20167%————
SpreadHOU by 6.2
DETDetroit Pistons+6.2our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−6.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.4
Over225.4our total————
Under225.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 6.2 expected
Detroit Pistons by 48 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 47 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 46 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 45 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%
← DET wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more57%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more41%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.4 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.569%
Total over 225.549%
Total over 235.530%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CSteven Adamsstarted
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·HOU
Oct 22, 2025 at CHI
last game
Oct 21, 2025 at OKC
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 24, 5:00 PM ET
Detroit Pistons
DETJaden Ivey · right knee; arthroscopyOut
DETMarcus Sasser · right hip; impingementDoubtful
DETCaris LeVert · left hamstring; tightnessQuestionable
Houston Rockets
HOUDorian Finney-Smith · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUIsaiah Crawford · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
HOUJae'Sean Tate · right ankle; surgeryQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
DET·HOU
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.44
111.0
points / game
124.0
115.0
points allowed / game
125.0
0−1
season record
0−1
0−0
home record
0−0
0−1
away record
0−1
L1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
3−7
44.0
FG%
44.0
29.0
3P%
28.0
46.0
rebounds / game
52.0
29.0
assists / game
23.0
10.0
turnovers / game
25.0
68.0
points in paint / game
44.0

Rating Trend

DET · HOU · 4 days
Detroit PistonsHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · HOU 6−2
Jan 20, 2025at HOUDET 107 − 96
Nov 10, 2024at DETHOU 101 − 99
Jan 12, 2024at DETHOU 112 − 110
Jan 1, 2024at HOUHOU 136 − 113
Mar 31, 2023at HOUHOU 121 − 115
Jan 28, 2023at DETHOU 117 − 114
Dec 18, 2021at DETHOU 116 − 107
Nov 10, 2021at HOUDET 112 − 104

DET · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Oct 22, 2025at CHI111 − 115L
May 1, 2025vs NY113 − 116L
Apr 29, 2025at NY106 − 103W
Apr 27, 2025vs NY93 − 94L
Apr 24, 2025vs NY116 − 118L
Apr 21, 2025at NY100 − 94W
Apr 19, 2025at NY112 − 123L
Apr 13, 2025at MIL133 − 140L
Apr 11, 2025vs MIL119 − 125L
Apr 10, 2025vs NY115 − 106W

HOU · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Oct 21, 2025at OKC124 − 125L
May 4, 2025vs GS89 − 103L
May 2, 2025at GS115 − 107W
Apr 30, 2025vs GS131 − 116W
Apr 28, 2025at GS106 − 109L
Apr 26, 2025at GS93 − 104L
Apr 23, 2025vs GS109 − 94W
Apr 20, 2025vs GS85 − 95L
Apr 13, 2025vs DEN111 − 126L
Apr 11, 2025at LAL109 − 140L