bayesRatings

Pacers at Grizzlies

NBA · Saturday, Oct 25 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · Final IND 103 – MEM 128
← NBA / Oct 25, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND21313219103
MEM23374325128
Team box
IND·MEM
36-89
field goals
44-97
14-40
3-pointers
15-39
17-23
free throws
25-32
44
rebounds
49
25
assists
31
13
turnovers
6
36
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cedric CowardMEM242764
Bennedict MathurinIND282634
Ja MorantMEM271938
Jaren Jackson Jr.MEM251721
Javon SmallMEM211626
Aaron NesmithIND311511

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +30
IND +30
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 30 · IND 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 55%, MEM 45% · Updated Oct 25, 2025

Expected margin
IND by 0.8
Expected score
IND 120.3 – 119.5 MEM
Expected total
239.8
PacersThe matchupGrizzlies
−121Our fair odds+121
120.3Expected points119.5
+0.56Power rating+0.14
135.0Points / game121.0
141.0Allowed / game134.0
44.0FG%45.5
30.03P%29.5
55.0Rebounds / game40.0
0−1Season record1−1
4−6Last 103−7
Andrew Nembhard · Kam Jones
Quenton Jackson · T.J. McConnell
Tyrese HaliburtonOut (5 each)Brandon Clarke · Scotty Pippen Jr.
Ty Jerome · Vince Williams Jr.
Zach Edey

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · MEM chance
Our model fair54.7%45.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers−12155%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+12145%————
SpreadIND by 0.8
INDIndiana Pacers−0.8our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 239.8
Over239.8our total————
Under239.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indiana Pacers by 0.8 expected
Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%
← IND wins byMEM wins by →
Indiana Pacers wins by 5 or more42%
Indiana Pacers wins by 10 or more28%
Indiana Pacers wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

239.8 expected
189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 229.568%
Total over 239.549%
Total over 249.531%
Total from 230 to 24937%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GAaron Nesmithstarted
GBen Sheppardstarted
GBennedict Mathurinstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
CJames Wisemanstarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GKentavious Caldwell-Popestarted
GJa Morantstarted
FJaren Jackson Jr.started
FJaylen Wellsstarted
CJock Landalestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·MEM
Oct 23, 2025 vs OKC
last game
Oct 24, 2025 vs MIA
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
1
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 25, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDAndrew Nembhard · left shoulder; strainOut
INDKam Jones · lower back; stress reactionOut
INDQuenton Jackson · right hamstring; strainOut
INDT.J. McConnell · left hamstring; strainOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tornOut
INDJohnny Furphy · left foot; soreQuestionable
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; strainOut
MEMVince Williams Jr. · right ankle; effusionOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; surgery recoveryOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
IND·MEM
+0.56
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
135.0
points / game
121.0
141.0
points allowed / game
134.0
0−1
season record
1−1
0−1
home record
1−1
0−0
away record
0−0
L1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
3−7
44.0
FG%
45.5
30.0
3P%
29.5
55.0
rebounds / game
40.0
21.0
assists / game
24.5
14.0
turnovers / game
18.5
56.0
points in paint / game
50.0

Rating Trend

IND · MEM · 5 days
Indiana PacersMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · MEM 6−2
Feb 20, 2025at INDIND 127 − 113
Dec 1, 2024at MEMMEM 136 − 121
Jan 28, 2024at INDIND 116 − 110
Dec 21, 2023at MEMMEM 116 − 103
Jan 29, 2023at MEMMEM 112 − 100
Jan 14, 2023at INDMEM 130 − 112
Mar 24, 2022at MEMMEM 133 − 103
Mar 15, 2022at INDMEM 135 − 102

IND · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Oct 23, 2025vs OKC135 − 141L
Jun 22, 2025at OKC91 − 103L
Jun 19, 2025vs OKC108 − 91W
Jun 16, 2025at OKC109 − 120L
Jun 13, 2025vs OKC104 − 111L
Jun 11, 2025vs OKC116 − 107W
Jun 8, 2025at OKC107 − 123L
Jun 5, 2025at OKC111 − 110W
May 31, 2025vs NY125 − 108W
May 29, 2025at NY94 − 111L

MEM · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Oct 24, 2025vs MIA114 − 146L
Oct 22, 2025vs NO128 − 122W
Apr 26, 2025vs OKC115 − 117L
Apr 24, 2025vs OKC108 − 114L
Apr 22, 2025at OKC99 − 118L
Apr 20, 2025at OKC80 − 131L
Apr 13, 2025vs DAL132 − 97W
Apr 11, 2025at DEN109 − 117L
Apr 10, 2025vs MIN125 − 141L
Apr 8, 2025at CHA124 − 100W