bayesRatings

Suns at Nuggets

NBA · Saturday, Oct 25 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final PHX 111 – DEN 133
← NBA / Oct 25, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHX28262928111
DEN34372933133
Team box
PHX·DEN
38-88
field goals
43-84
17-50
3-pointers
9-31
18-22
free throws
38-42
38
rebounds
43
24
assists
31
20
turnovers
16
34
points in paint
62
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Devin BookerPHX373137
Jamal MurrayDEN322365
Christian BraunDEN312033
Grayson AllenPHX331745
Aaron GordonDEN251721
Cameron JohnsonDEN251541

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +25
PHX +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 25 · PHX 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHX 29%, DEN 71% · Updated Oct 25, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 7.4
Expected score
DEN 121.2 – 113.8 PHX
Expected total
235.0
SunsThe matchupNuggets
+249Our fair odds−249
113.8Expected points121.2
−0.17Power rating+0.53
111.0Points / game131.0
122.5Allowed / game137.0
44.0FG%54.0
31.53P%40.0
44.0Rebounds / game43.0
1−1Season record0−1
2−8Last 104−6
Jalen Green · Mark WilliamsOut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHX chance · DEN chance
Our model fair28.6%71.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHXPhoenix Suns+24929%————
DENDenver Nuggets−24971%————
SpreadDEN by 7.4
PHXPhoenix Suns+7.4our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets−7.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.0
Over235.0our total————
Under235.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 7.4 expected
Phoenix Suns by 50 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 49 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 48 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 47 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 46 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 45 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 44 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 47 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 48 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 49 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 50 points: <1%
← PHX wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more60%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more44%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more30%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

235.0 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.567%
Total over 235.548%
Total over 245.529%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Phoenix Suns
GGrayson Allenstarted
GDevin Bookerstarted
FDillon Brooksstarted
FOso Ighodarostarted
FRyan Dunnstarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHX·DEN
Oct 24, 2025 at LAC
last game
Oct 23, 2025 at GS
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 25, 5:00 PM ET
PHXJalen Green · right hamstring; strainOut
PHXMark Williams · right knee; injury managementOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
PHX·DEN
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
+0.53
111.0
points / game
131.0
122.5
points allowed / game
137.0
1−1
season record
0−1
1−0
home record
0−0
0−1
away record
0−1
L1
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
4−6
44.0
FG%
54.0
31.5
3P%
40.0
44.0
rebounds / game
43.0
23.0
assists / game
32.0
17.0
turnovers / game
13.0
49.0
points in paint / game
56.0

Rating Trend

PHX · DEN · 5 days
Phoenix SunsDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DEN 6−4
Mar 7, 2025at DENDEN 149 − 141
Feb 8, 2025at PHXDEN 122 − 105
Dec 25, 2024at PHXPHX 110 − 100
Dec 23, 2024at DENDEN 117 − 90
Mar 27, 2024at DENPHX 104 − 97
Mar 5, 2024at DENPHX 117 − 107
Dec 1, 2023at PHXDEN 119 − 111
May 11, 2023at PHXDEN 125 − 100post
May 9, 2023at DENDEN 118 − 102post
May 7, 2023at PHXPHX 129 − 124post

PHX · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Oct 24, 2025at LAC102 − 129L
Oct 22, 2025vs SAC120 − 116W
Apr 13, 2025at SAC98 − 109L
Apr 11, 2025vs SA117 − 98W
Apr 9, 2025vs OKC112 − 125L
Apr 8, 2025vs GS95 − 133L
Apr 6, 2025at NY98 − 112L
Apr 4, 2025at BOS103 − 123L
Apr 1, 2025at MIL123 − 133L
Mar 30, 2025vs HOU109 − 148L

DEN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Oct 23, 2025at GS131 − 137L
May 18, 2025at OKC93 − 125L
May 15, 2025vs OKC119 − 107W
May 13, 2025at OKC105 − 112L
May 11, 2025vs OKC87 − 92L
May 9, 2025vs OKC113 − 104W
May 7, 2025at OKC106 − 149L
May 5, 2025at OKC121 − 119W
May 3, 2025vs LAC120 − 101W
May 1, 2025at LAC105 − 111L