bayesRatings

Flames at Avalanche

NHL · Monday, Mar 30 · 7:30 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final CGY 2 – COL 9
← NHL / Mar 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
CGY0112
COL5139
Team box
CGY·COL
29
shots
49
0 of 1
power play
3 of 4
58.6
faceoff %
41.4
15
hits
15
15
blocked shots
12
8
penalty minutes
2
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Nathan MacKinnonCOL125
Martin NecasCOL123
Jack DruryCOL123
Parker KellyCOL122
Cale MakarCOL032
Nazem KadriCOL205
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Dustin WolfCGY1612.750
Devin CooleyCGY3328.848
Scott WedgewoodCOL2927.931

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +7
CGY +7
P1P2P3
largest lead: COL 7 · CGY 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CGY 30%, COL 70% · Updated Mar 30

Expected margin
COL by 1.6
Expected score
COL 3.8 – 2.2 CGY
Expected total
6.0
FlamesThe matchupAvalanche
+238Our fair odds−238
2.2Expected goals3.8
−0.20Power rating+0.53
2.6Goals / game3.7
3.1Allowed / game2.5
28.5Shots / game33.6
49.0Faceoff %51.5
20.7Hits / game17.1
31−42Season record48−24
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CGY chance · COL chance
Our model fair29.6%70.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CGYCalgary Flames+23830%————
COLColorado Avalanche−23870%————
SpreadCOL by 1.6
CGYCalgary Flames+1.6our margin————
COLColorado Avalanche−1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 1.6 expected
Calgary Flames by 7 goals: <1%Calgary Flames by 6 goals: <1%Calgary Flames by 5 goals: <1%Calgary Flames by 4 goals: 1%Calgary Flames by 3 goals: 3%Calgary Flames by 2 goals: 4%Calgary Flames by 1 goal: 19%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 17%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 14%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 20%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 13%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 6%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: 1%
← CGY wins byCOL wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more56%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more42%
Calgary Flames wins by 2 or more9%
Decided by one goal35%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.541%
Total over 7.524%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CGYDevin Cooley G · last 5 starts: .904 save %, 2.92 GAAstarted
COLScott Wedgewood G · last 5 starts: .951 save %, 1.24 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CGY·COL
Mar 28 vs VAN
last game
Mar 28 vs WPG
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 72+ games
CGY·COL
−0.20
rating (0 = average)
+0.53
2.6
goals / game
3.7
3.1
goals allowed / game
2.5
31−42
season record
48−24
21−17
home record
23−12
10−25
away record
25−12
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
28.5
shots / game
33.6
49.0
faceoff %
51.5
20.7
hits / game
17.1
14.8
blocked shots / game
12.8
4.5
takeaways / game
4.5
16.5
giveaways / game
15.8

Rating Trend

CGY · COL · 145 days
Calgary FlamesColorado Avalanche
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 8−2
Mar 31, 2025at COLCGY 3 − 2 SO
Mar 14, 2025at CGYCOL 4 − 2
Feb 6, 2025at CGYCOL 4 − 2
Mar 12, 2024at CGYCOL 6 − 2
Dec 11, 2023at COLCOL 6 − 5
Nov 25, 2023at COLCOL 3 − 1
Feb 25, 2023at COLCOL 4 − 1
Jan 18, 2023at CGYCOL 4 − 1
Oct 13, 2022at CGYCGY 5 − 3
Mar 29, 2022at CGYCOL 2 − 1

CGY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 28vs VAN7 − 3W
Mar 26vs ANA2 − 3L
Mar 24vs LA3 − 2W
Mar 22vs TB4 − 3W
Mar 20vs FLA4 − 1W
Mar 18vs STL2 − 1W
Mar 16at DET2 − 5L
Mar 14at NYI2 − 3L
Mar 12at NJ5 − 4W
Mar 10at NYR0 − 4L

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 28vs WPG2 − 4L
Mar 26at WPG3 − 2W
Mar 24at PIT6 − 2W
Mar 22at WSH3 − 2W
Mar 20at CHI4 − 1W
Mar 18vs DAL1 − 2L
Mar 16vs PIT2 − 7L
Mar 14at WPG1 − 3L
Mar 12at SEA5 − 1W
Mar 10vs EDM3 − 4L