bayesRatings

Devils at Bruins

NHL · Tuesday, Apr 14 · 6:00 PM CT · TD Garden · Final NJ 0 – BOS 4
← NHL / Apr 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NJ0000
BOS4004
Team box
NJ·BOS
21
shots
26
0 of 1
power play
0 of 0
35.7
faceoff %
64.3
8
hits
13
9
blocked shots
22
0
penalty minutes
2
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Mark KastelicBOS204
Sean KuralyBOS022
Morgan GeekieBOS102
Viktor ArvidssonBOS101
David PastrnakBOS013
Tanner JeannotBOS012
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Nico DawsNJ2622.846
Jeremy SwaymanBOS21211.000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +4
NJ +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: BOS 4 · NJ 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NJ 44%, BOS 56% · Updated Apr 14

Expected margin
BOS by 0.5
Expected score
BOS 3.2 – 2.8 NJ
Expected total
6.0
DevilsThe matchupBruins
+128Our fair odds−128
2.8Expected goals3.2
−0.05Power rating+0.05
2.8Goals / game3.3
3.1Allowed / game3.1
29.7Shots / game27.0
50.8Faceoff %53.0
18.6Hits / game22.8
42−39Season record44−37
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NJ chance · BOS chance
Our model fair43.9%56.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NJNew Jersey Devils+12844%————
BOSBoston Bruins−12856%————
SpreadBOS by 0.5
NJNew Jersey Devils+0.5our margin————
BOSBoston Bruins−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Bruins by 0.5 expected
New Jersey Devils by 6 goals: <1%New Jersey Devils by 5 goals: 1%New Jersey Devils by 4 goals: 4%New Jersey Devils by 3 goals: 8%New Jersey Devils by 2 goals: 8%New Jersey Devils by 1 goal: 22%Boston Bruins by 1 goal: 20%Boston Bruins by 2 goals: 11%Boston Bruins by 3 goals: 14%Boston Bruins by 4 goals: 8%Boston Bruins by 5 goals: 3%Boston Bruins by 6 goals: 1%
← NJ wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Bruins wins by 2 or more37%
Boston Bruins wins by 3 or more25%
New Jersey Devils wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.542%
Total over 7.523%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NJNico Daws G · last 5 starts: .936 save %, 1.79 GAAstarted
BOSJeremy Swayman G · last 5 starts: .907 save %, 2.41 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NJ·BOS
Apr 12 vs OTT
last game
Apr 12 at CBJ
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 81+ games
NJ·BOS
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
2.8
goals / game
3.3
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.1
42−39
season record
44−37
21−20
home record
28−12
21−19
away record
16−25
W2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
29.7
shots / game
27.0
50.8
faceoff %
53.0
18.6
hits / game
22.8
13.9
blocked shots / game
15.1
4.7
takeaways / game
4.6
16.0
giveaways / game
16.4

Rating Trend

NJ · BOS · 159 days
New Jersey DevilsBoston Bruins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 6−4
Mar 16at NJNJ 4 − 3 OT
Dec 6, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 1
Apr 15, 2025at BOSNJ 5 − 4 OT
Apr 8, 2025at NJBOS 7 − 2
Jan 22, 2025at NJNJ 5 − 1
Jan 15, 2024at BOSBOS 3 − 0
Dec 30, 2023at BOSBOS 5 − 2
Dec 13, 2023at NJNJ 2 − 1 OT
Apr 8, 2023at BOSBOS 2 − 1
Dec 28, 2022at NJBOS 3 − 1

NJ · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 12vs OTT4 − 3W
Apr 11at DET5 − 3W
Apr 9vs PIT2 − 5L
Apr 7vs PHI1 − 5L
Apr 5at MTL3 − 0W
Apr 4vs MTL3 − 4L
Apr 2vs WSH7 − 3W
Mar 31at NYR1 − 4L
Mar 29vs CHI5 − 3W
Mar 28at CAR2 − 5L

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 12at CBJ3 − 2W
Apr 11vs TB1 − 2L
Apr 7at CAR5 − 6L
Apr 5at PHI1 − 2L
Apr 4at TB1 − 3L
Apr 2at FLA1 − 2L
Mar 31vs DAL6 − 3W
Mar 29at CBJ4 − 3W
Mar 28vs MIN6 − 3W
Mar 25at BUF4 − 3W