bayesRatings

Bruins at Devils

NHL · Monday, Mar 16 · 6:00 PM CT · Prudential Center · Final BOS 3 – NJ 4
← NHL / Mar 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
BOS20103
NJ02114
Team box
BOS·NJ
22
shots
34
0 of 3
power play
0 of 2
52.1
faceoff %
47.9
22
hits
20
19
blocked shots
9
18
penalty minutes
20
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Jack HughesNJ034
David PastrnakBOS204
Paul CotterNJ202
Connor BrownNJ113
Jesper BrattNJ102
Pavel ZachaBOS101
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Joonas KorpisaloBOS3430.882
Jacob MarkstromNJ2219.864

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NJ +3
BOS +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: NJ 1 · BOS 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 49%, NJ 51% · Updated Mar 16

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 2.9 – 2.8 NJ
Expected total
5.7
BruinsThe matchupDevils
+103Our fair odds−103
2.9Expected goals2.8
+0.01Power rating−0.12
3.3Goals / game2.7
3.1Allowed / game3.0
27.4Shots / game29.8
52.5Faceoff %50.8
23.3Hits / game18.9
37−29Season record33−33
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · NJ chance
Our model fair49.3%50.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Bruins+10349%————
NJNew Jersey Devils−10351%————
Spreadabout even
BOSBoston Bruins−0.1our margin————
NJNew Jersey Devils+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.7
Over5.7our total————
Under5.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Boston Bruins by 6 goals: <1%Boston Bruins by 5 goals: 2%Boston Bruins by 4 goals: 6%Boston Bruins by 3 goals: 12%Boston Bruins by 2 goals: 10%Boston Bruins by 1 goal: 19%New Jersey Devils by 1 goal: 25%New Jersey Devils by 2 goals: 9%New Jersey Devils by 3 goals: 10%New Jersey Devils by 4 goals: 5%New Jersey Devils by 5 goals: 1%New Jersey Devils by 6 goals: <1%
← BOS wins byNJ wins by →
Boston Bruins wins by 2 or more30%
Boston Bruins wins by 3 or more20%
New Jersey Devils wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.7 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.570%
Total over 5.548%
Total over 6.537%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
BOSJoonas Korpisalo G · last 5 starts: .875 save %, 3.97 GAAstarted
NJJacob Markstrom G · last 5 starts: .882 save %, 3.00 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·NJ
Mar 14 at WSH
last game
Mar 14 vs LA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 66+ games
BOS·NJ
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
3.3
goals / game
2.7
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.0
37−29
season record
33−33
25−10
home record
17−17
12−19
away record
16−16
W1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
27.4
shots / game
29.8
52.5
faceoff %
50.8
23.3
hits / game
18.9
15.4
blocked shots / game
14.0
4.7
takeaways / game
4.7
16.1
giveaways / game
15.5

Rating Trend

BOS · NJ · 131 days
Boston BruinsNew Jersey Devils
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NJ 3−7
Dec 6, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 1
Apr 15, 2025at BOSNJ 5 − 4 OT
Apr 8, 2025at NJBOS 7 − 2
Jan 22, 2025at NJNJ 5 − 1
Jan 15, 2024at BOSBOS 3 − 0
Dec 30, 2023at BOSBOS 5 − 2
Dec 13, 2023at NJNJ 2 − 1 OT
Apr 8, 2023at BOSBOS 2 − 1
Dec 28, 2022at NJBOS 3 − 1
Dec 23, 2022at NJBOS 4 − 3

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 14at WSH3 − 2W
Mar 12vs SJ2 − 4L
Mar 10vs LA2 − 1W
Mar 8at PIT4 − 5L
Mar 7vs WSH3 − 1W
Mar 5at NSH3 − 6L
Mar 3vs PIT2 − 1W
Feb 28at PHI1 − 3L
Feb 26vs CBJ4 − 2W
Feb 4at FLA4 − 5L

NJ · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 14vs LA6 − 4W
Mar 12vs CGY4 − 5L
Mar 8vs DET0 − 3L
Mar 7vs NYR6 − 3W
Mar 4vs TOR4 − 3W
Mar 3vs FLA5 − 1W
Feb 28at STL3 − 1W
Feb 26at PIT1 − 4L
Feb 25vs BUF1 − 2L
Feb 5vs NYI1 − 3L