bayesRatings

Kings at Devils

NHL · Saturday, Mar 14 · 6:00 PM CT · Prudential Center · Final LA 4 – NJ 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
LA0314
NJ2046
Team box
LA·NJ
31
shots
28
2 of 3
power play
2 of 3
45.6
faceoff %
54.4
22
hits
16
13
blocked shots
14
6
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Anton ForsbergLA2722.815
Jake AllenNJ3127.871

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NJ +3
LA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: NJ 2 · LA 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LA 47%, NJ 53% · Updated Mar 14

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NJ 2.5 – 2.5 LA
Expected total
5.1
KingsThe matchupDevils
+112Our fair odds−112
2.5Expected goals2.5
−0.07Power rating−0.12
2.6Goals / game2.6
3.0Allowed / game3.0
27.6Shots / game29.8
48.4Faceoff %50.7
19.4Hits / game18.9
27−38Season record32−33
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LA chance · NJ chance
Our model fair47.3%52.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALos Angeles Kings+11247%————
NJNew Jersey Devils−11253%————
Spreadabout even
LALos Angeles KingsPKour margin————
NJNew Jersey DevilsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 5.1
Over5.1our total————
Under5.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 1%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 5%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 11%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 10%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 20%New Jersey Devils by 1 goal: 27%New Jersey Devils by 2 goals: 10%New Jersey Devils by 3 goals: 10%New Jersey Devils by 4 goals: 4%New Jersey Devils by 5 goals: 1%
← LA wins byNJ wins by →
New Jersey Devils wins by 2 or more25%
New Jersey Devils wins by 3 or more16%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one goal47%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.1 expected
1 goals: 4%2 goals: 4%3 goals: 19%4 goals: 11%5 goals: 24%6 goals: 10%7 goals: 15%8 goals: 5%9 goals: 5%10 goals: 1%11 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.561%
Total over 5.537%
Total over 6.527%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
LAAnton Forsberg G · last 5 starts: .890 save %, 3.54 GAAstarted
NJJake Allen G · last 5 starts: .904 save %, 2.47 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LA·NJ
Mar 13 at NYI
last game
Mar 12 vs CGY
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 65+ games
LA·NJ
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
2.6
goals / game
2.6
3.0
goals allowed / game
3.0
27−38
season record
32−33
10−22
home record
16−17
17−16
away record
16−16
W1
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
4−6
27.6
shots / game
29.8
48.4
faceoff %
50.7
19.4
hits / game
18.9
14.2
blocked shots / game
14.0
4.7
takeaways / game
4.7
16.0
giveaways / game
15.5

Rating Trend

LA · NJ · 129 days
Los Angeles KingsNew Jersey Devils
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · NJ 4−5
Nov 1, 2025at LANJ 4 − 1
Jan 1, 2025at LALA 3 − 0
Dec 12, 2024at NJNJ 3 − 1
Mar 3, 2024at LALA 5 − 1
Feb 15, 2024at NJLA 2 − 1
Feb 23, 2023at NJNJ 4 − 3 OT
Jan 14, 2023at LANJ 5 − 2
Jan 23, 2022at NJLA 3 − 2
Nov 5, 2021at LALA 3 − 2 OT

LA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Mar 13at NYI3 − 2W
Mar 10at BOS1 − 2L
Mar 9at CBJ5 − 4W
Mar 7vs MTL3 − 4L
Mar 5vs NYI5 − 3W
Mar 2vs COL2 − 4L
Feb 28vs CGY2 − 0W
Feb 26vs EDM1 − 8L
Feb 25vs VGK4 − 6L
Feb 5at VGK1 − 4L

NJ · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Mar 12vs CGY4 − 5L
Mar 8vs DET0 − 3L
Mar 7vs NYR6 − 3W
Mar 4vs TOR4 − 3W
Mar 3vs FLA5 − 1W
Feb 28at STL3 − 1W
Feb 26at PIT1 − 4L
Feb 25vs BUF1 − 2L
Feb 5vs NYI1 − 3L
Feb 3vs CBJ0 − 3L