bayesRatings

Canadiens at Kings

NHL · Saturday, Mar 7 · 6:00 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final MTL 4 – LA 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
MTL0224
LA1113
Team box
MTL·LA
23
shots
39
1 of 1
power play
0 of 3
51.1
faceoff %
48.9
21
hits
32
15
blocked shots
13
6
penalty minutes
2
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jakub DobesMTL3936.923
Darcy KuemperLA2319.826

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LA +3
MTL +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: LA 1 · MTL 1lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MTL 50%, LA 50% · Updated Mar 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MTL 3.0 – 3.0 LA
Expected total
6.0
CanadiensThe matchupKings
+101Our fair odds−101
3.0Expected goals3.0
+0.08Power rating−0.08
3.6Goals / game2.6
3.4Allowed / game3.0
26.4Shots / game27.5
50.8Faceoff %48.3
21.6Hits / game19.0
33−28Season record25−36
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MTL chance · LA chance
Our model fair49.7%50.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MTLMontreal Canadiens+10150%————
LALos Angeles Kings−10150%————
Spreadabout even
MTLMontreal Canadiens−0.1our margin————
LALos Angeles Kings+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Montreal Canadiens by 6 goals: <1%Montreal Canadiens by 5 goals: 2%Montreal Canadiens by 4 goals: 6%Montreal Canadiens by 3 goals: 12%Montreal Canadiens by 2 goals: 10%Montreal Canadiens by 1 goal: 19%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 24%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 9%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 10%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 5%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 2%Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: <1%
← MTL wins byLA wins by →
Montreal Canadiens wins by 2 or more31%
Montreal Canadiens wins by 3 or more20%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.542%
Total over 7.523%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
MTLJakub Dobes G · last 5 starts: .884 save %, 3.39 GAAstarted
LADarcy Kuemper G · last 5 starts: .885 save %, 3.12 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MTL·LA
Mar 6 at ANA
last game
Mar 5 vs NYI
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 61+ games
MTL·LA
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
3.6
goals / game
2.6
3.4
goals allowed / game
3.0
33−28
season record
25−36
17−13
home record
10−21
16−15
away record
15−15
L2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
3−7
26.4
shots / game
27.5
50.8
faceoff %
48.3
21.6
hits / game
19.0
16.5
blocked shots / game
14.1
4.5
takeaways / game
4.6
13.5
giveaways / game
16.1

Rating Trend

MTL · LA · 122 days
Montreal CanadiensLos Angeles Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · LA 9−0
Nov 11, 2025at MTLLA 5 − 1
Feb 5, 2025at LALA 6 − 3
Oct 17, 2024at MTLLA 4 − 1
Dec 7, 2023at MTLLA 4 − 0
Nov 25, 2023at LALA 4 − 0
Mar 2, 2023at LALA 3 − 2
Dec 10, 2022at MTLLA 4 − 2
Nov 9, 2021at MTLLA 3 − 2 OT
Oct 30, 2021at LALA 5 − 2

MTL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Mar 6at ANA5 − 6L
Mar 3at SJ5 − 7L
Feb 28vs WSH6 − 2W
Feb 26vs NYI3 − 4L
Feb 4at WPG5 − 1W
Feb 2at MIN3 − 4L
Jan 31at BUF4 − 2W
Jan 29vs COL7 − 3W
Jan 27vs VGK3 − 2W
Jan 24at BOS3 − 4L

LA · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Mar 5vs NYI5 − 3W
Mar 2vs COL2 − 4L
Feb 28vs CGY2 − 0W
Feb 26vs EDM1 − 8L
Feb 25vs VGK4 − 6L
Feb 5at VGK1 − 4L
Feb 4vs SEA2 − 4L
Feb 1at CAR2 − 3L
Jan 31at PHI3 − 2W
Jan 29at BUF1 − 4L