bayesRatings

Kraken at Kings

NHL · Wednesday, Feb 4 · 9:00 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final SEA 4 – LA 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
SEA3014
LA1102
Team box
SEA·LA
23
shots
27
2 of 6
power play
2 of 4
43.1
faceoff %
56.9
17
hits
18
17
blocked shots
15
12
penalty minutes
16
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Joey DaccordSEA2725.926
Darcy KuemperLA2319.826

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LA +3
SEA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: LA 1 · SEA 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 45%, LA 55% · Updated Feb 4

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
LA 2.8 – 2.5 SEA
Expected total
5.3
KrakenThe matchupKings
+124Our fair odds−124
2.5Expected goals2.8
−0.05Power rating+0.00
2.9Goals / game2.6
3.0Allowed / game2.8
25.4Shots / game27.5
47.9Faceoff %48.5
18.5Hits / game18.3
26−29Season record23−31
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · LA chance
Our model fair44.6%55.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Kraken+12445%————
LALos Angeles Kings−12455%————
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle Kraken+0.3our margin————
LALos Angeles Kings−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.3
Over5.3our total————
Under5.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Kraken by 6 goals: <1%Seattle Kraken by 5 goals: 1%Seattle Kraken by 4 goals: 4%Seattle Kraken by 3 goals: 9%Seattle Kraken by 2 goals: 9%Seattle Kraken by 1 goal: 22%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 24%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 11%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 12%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 6%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 2%Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: <1%
← SEA wins byLA wins by →
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more31%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 3 or more20%
Seattle Kraken wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one goal46%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.3 expected
1 goals: 4%2 goals: 4%3 goals: 17%4 goals: 11%5 goals: 24%6 goals: 10%7 goals: 16%8 goals: 5%9 goals: 6%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 1%12 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.564%
Total over 5.541%
Total over 6.530%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
SEAJoey Daccord G · last 5 starts: .902 save %, 2.84 GAAstarted
LADarcy Kuemper G · last 5 starts: .897 save %, 2.68 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·LA
Feb 3 at ANA
last game
Feb 1 at CAR
0 days
days of rest
2 days
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 54+ games
SEA·LA
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
2.9
goals / game
2.6
3.0
goals allowed / game
2.8
26−29
season record
23−31
14−14
home record
8−17
12−15
away record
15−14
L1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
25.4
shots / game
27.5
47.9
faceoff %
48.5
18.5
hits / game
18.3
16.3
blocked shots / game
13.8
4.7
takeaways / game
4.6
15.4
giveaways / game
16.4

Rating Trend

SEA · LA · 110 days
Seattle KrakenLos Angeles Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LA 5−5
Dec 23, 2025at LASEA 3 − 2
Dec 10, 2025at SEASEA 3 − 2 OT
Apr 15, 2025at SEALA 6 − 5
Apr 7, 2025at LASEA 2 − 1
Jan 18, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 2
Nov 23, 2024at LALA 2 − 1
Apr 3, 2024at LALA 5 − 2
Dec 20, 2023at LASEA 2 − 1
Dec 16, 2023at SEALA 3 − 2 SO
Apr 1, 2023at SEALA 3 − 1

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Feb 3at ANA2 − 4L
Jan 31at VGK3 − 2W
Jan 29vs TOR5 − 2W
Jan 27vs WSH5 − 1W
Jan 25vs NJ4 − 2W
Jan 23vs ANA2 − 4L
Jan 21vs NYI4 − 1W
Jan 19vs PIT3 − 6L
Jan 17at UTAH3 − 6L
Jan 15at BOS2 − 4L

LA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Feb 1at CAR2 − 3L
Jan 31at PHI3 − 2W
Jan 29at BUF1 − 4L
Jan 27at DET3 − 1W
Jan 24at STL5 − 4W
Jan 20vs NYR4 − 3W
Jan 17at ANA1 − 2L
Jan 16vs ANA2 − 3L
Jan 14vs VGK2 − 3L
Jan 12vs DAL1 − 3L