bayesRatings

Kraken at Ducks

NHL · Tuesday, Feb 3 · 9:00 PM CT · Honda Center · Final SEA 2 – ANA 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
SEA0022
ANA0224
Team box
SEA·ANA
28
shots
31
0 of 0
power play
0 of 3
56.7
faceoff %
43.3
12
hits
16
20
blocked shots
14
20
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Philipp GrubauerSEA3127.871
Lukas DostalANA2826.929

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ANA +4
SEA +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: ANA 4 · SEA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 49%, ANA 51% · Updated Feb 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 3.2 – 3.1 ANA
Expected total
6.3
KrakenThe matchupDucks
+105Our fair odds−105
3.2Expected goals3.1
−0.05Power rating−0.16
2.9Goals / game3.3
2.9Allowed / game3.5
25.4Shots / game30.1
47.7Faceoff %47.0
18.6Hits / game21.3
26−28Season record29−26
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · ANA chance
Our model fair48.7%51.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Kraken+10549%————
ANAAnaheim Ducks−10551%————
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle Kraken−0.1our margin————
ANAAnaheim Ducks+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Kraken by 6 goals: <1%Seattle Kraken by 5 goals: 2%Seattle Kraken by 4 goals: 6%Seattle Kraken by 3 goals: 12%Seattle Kraken by 2 goals: 10%Seattle Kraken by 1 goal: 18%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 24%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 9%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 10%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 5%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 2%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%
← SEA wins byANA wins by →
Seattle Kraken wins by 2 or more31%
Seattle Kraken wins by 3 or more21%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.547%
Total over 7.527%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
SEAPhilipp Grubauer G · last 5 starts: .901 save %, 2.60 GAAstarted
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .935 save %, 1.96 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·ANA
Jan 31 at VGK
last game
Feb 1 vs VGK
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 54+ games
SEA·ANA
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.16
2.9
goals / game
3.3
2.9
goals allowed / game
3.5
26−28
season record
29−26
14−14
home record
16−9
12−14
away record
13−17
W4
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
8−2
25.4
shots / game
30.1
47.7
faceoff %
47.0
18.6
hits / game
21.3
16.2
blocked shots / game
15.1
4.6
takeaways / game
4.9
15.4
giveaways / game
15.5

Rating Trend

SEA · ANA · 109 days
Seattle KrakenAnaheim Ducks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ANA 3−7
Jan 23at SEAANA 4 − 2
Dec 22, 2025at ANASEA 3 − 1
Oct 9, 2025at SEASEA 3 − 1
Jan 28, 2025at SEAANA 6 − 4
Nov 27, 2024at SEAANA 5 − 2
Nov 25, 2024at ANASEA 3 − 2
Apr 5, 2024at ANASEA 3 − 1
Mar 28, 2024at SEASEA 4 − 2
Mar 26, 2024at SEASEA 4 − 0
Dec 23, 2023at ANASEA 3 − 2

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W4
Jan 31at VGK3 − 2W
Jan 29vs TOR5 − 2W
Jan 27vs WSH5 − 1W
Jan 25vs NJ4 − 2W
Jan 23vs ANA2 − 4L
Jan 21vs NYI4 − 1W
Jan 19vs PIT3 − 6L
Jan 17at UTAH3 − 6L
Jan 15at BOS2 − 4L
Jan 14at NJ2 − 3L

ANA · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Feb 1vs VGK4 − 3W
Jan 29at VAN0 − 2L
Jan 26at EDM4 − 7L
Jan 25at CGY4 − 3W
Jan 23at SEA4 − 2W
Jan 21at COL2 − 1W
Jan 19vs NYR5 − 3W
Jan 17vs LA2 − 1W
Jan 16at LA3 − 2W
Jan 13vs DAL3 − 1W