bayesRatings

Ducks at Avalanche

NHL · Wednesday, Jan 21 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final ANA 2 – COL 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
ANA010012
COL001001
Team box
ANA·COL
16
shots
41
0 of 1
power play
0 of 2
45.0
faceoff %
55.0
27
hits
16
24
blocked shots
15
4
penalty minutes
2
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Lukas DostalANA4140.976
Scott WedgewoodCOL1615.938

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
ANA +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: COL 0 · ANA 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ANA 26%, COL 74% · Updated Jan 21

Expected margin
COL by 2.0
Expected score
COL 4.5 – 2.5 ANA
Expected total
7.1
DucksThe matchupAvalanche
+289Our fair odds−289
2.5Expected goals4.5
−0.19Power rating+0.72
3.3Goals / game4.0
3.6Allowed / game2.4
30.4Shots / game34.7
46.8Faceoff %51.1
20.9Hits / game16.9
25−24Season record34−13
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ANA chance · COL chance
Our model fair25.7%74.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ANAAnaheim Ducks+28926%————
COLColorado Avalanche−28974%————
SpreadCOL by 2.0
ANAAnaheim Ducks+2our margin————
COLColorado Avalanche−2our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.1
Over7.1our total————
Under7.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 2.0 expected
Anaheim Ducks by 8 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 7 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 1%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 3%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 4%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 15%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 14%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 13%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 21%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 16%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 8%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 2%Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 8 goals: 1%
← ANA wins byCOL wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more62%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more49%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more8%
Decided by one goal30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

7.1 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 6%4 goals: 6%5 goals: 16%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 11%9 goals: 13%10 goals: 6%11 goals: 6%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 2%14 goals: 1%15 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 6.558%
Total over 7.540%
Total over 8.529%
Total from 7 to 829%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .903 save %, 2.77 GAAstarted
COLScott Wedgewood G · last 5 starts: .911 save %, 2.44 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ANA·COL
Jan 19 vs NYR
last game
Jan 19 vs WSH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 47+ games
ANA·COL
−0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.72
3.3
goals / game
4.0
3.6
goals allowed / game
2.4
25−24
season record
34−13
15−9
home record
20−4
10−15
away record
14−9
W4
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
6−4
30.4
shots / game
34.7
46.8
faceoff %
51.1
20.9
hits / game
16.9
15.0
blocked shots / game
13.7
4.9
takeaways / game
4.6
15.7
giveaways / game
15.7

Rating Trend

ANA · COL · 96 days
Anaheim DucksColorado Avalanche
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 8−2
Nov 11, 2025at COLCOL 4 − 1
Apr 13, 2025at ANACOL 4 − 2
Dec 20, 2024at ANACOL 4 − 2
Oct 18, 2024at COLCOL 4 − 3 OT
Dec 5, 2023at COLCOL 3 − 2
Dec 2, 2023at ANAANA 4 − 3 SO
Nov 15, 2023at COLCOL 8 − 2
Apr 9, 2023at ANACOL 5 − 4 OT
Mar 27, 2023at ANACOL 5 − 1
Jan 26, 2023at COLANA 5 − 3

ANA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W4
Jan 19vs NYR5 − 3W
Jan 17vs LA2 − 1W
Jan 16at LA3 − 2W
Jan 13vs DAL3 − 1W
Jan 10at BUF3 − 5L
Jan 8at CAR2 − 5L
Jan 6at PHI2 − 5L
Jan 5at WSH4 − 7L
Jan 2vs MIN2 − 5L
Dec 31, 2025vs TB3 − 4L

COL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jan 19vs WSH5 − 2W
Jan 16vs NSH3 − 7L
Jan 12vs TOR3 − 4L
Jan 10vs CBJ4 − 0W
Jan 8vs OTT8 − 2W
Jan 6at TB2 − 4L
Jan 4at FLA1 − 2L
Jan 3at CAR5 − 3W
Dec 31, 2025vs STL6 − 1W
Dec 29, 2025vs LA5 − 2W