bayesRatings

Predators at Avalanche

NHL · Friday, Jan 16 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final NSH 7 – COL 3
← NHL / Jan 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NSH2237
COL2013
Team box
NSH·COL
30
shots
43
1 of 1
power play
0 of 2
64.3
faceoff %
35.7
16
hits
14
12
blocked shots
17
4
penalty minutes
2
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Ryan O'ReillyNSH316
Filip ForsbergNSH125
Roman JosiNSH032
Brock NelsonCOL204
Steven StamkosNSH112
Michael BuntingNSH112
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Juuse SarosNSH4340.930
Mackenzie BlackwoodCOL2823.821

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +4
NSH +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: COL 0 · NSH 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NSH 24%, COL 76% · Updated Jan 16

Expected margin
COL by 2.0
Expected score
COL 4.3 – 2.3 NSH
Expected total
6.6
PredatorsThe matchupAvalanche
+311Our fair odds−311
2.3Expected goals4.3
−0.19Power rating+0.79
2.8Goals / game4.0
3.3Allowed / game2.3
28.0Shots / game34.4
51.9Faceoff %51.5
19.4Hits / game17.0
22−24Season record33−12
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NSH chance · COL chance
Our model fair24.4%75.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NSHNashville Predators+31124%————
COLColorado Avalanche−31176%————
SpreadCOL by 2.0
NSHNashville Predators+2our margin————
COLColorado Avalanche−2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.6
Over6.6our total————
Under6.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 2.0 expected
Nashville Predators by 8 goals: <1%Nashville Predators by 7 goals: <1%Nashville Predators by 6 goals: <1%Nashville Predators by 5 goals: <1%Nashville Predators by 4 goals: 1%Nashville Predators by 3 goals: 3%Nashville Predators by 2 goals: 3%Nashville Predators by 1 goal: 15%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 16%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 13%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 22%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 15%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 8%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 2%Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 8 goals: 1%
← NSH wins byCOL wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more62%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more49%
Nashville Predators wins by 2 or more7%
Decided by one goal30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.6 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 8%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 18%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 10%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 5%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.563%
Total over 6.551%
Total over 7.532%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NSHJuuse Saros G · last 5 starts: .899 save %, 2.95 GAAstarted
COLMackenzie Blackwood G · last 5 starts: .931 save %, 1.80 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NSH·COL
Jan 13 vs EDM
last game
Jan 12 vs TOR
2 days
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 45+ games
NSH·COL
−0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.79
2.8
goals / game
4.0
3.3
goals allowed / game
2.3
22−24
season record
33−12
13−12
home record
19−3
9−12
away record
14−9
W2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
7−3
28.0
shots / game
34.4
51.9
faceoff %
51.5
19.4
hits / game
17.0
11.9
blocked shots / game
13.7
5.3
takeaways / game
4.6
15.5
giveaways / game
15.6

Rating Trend

NSH · COL · 91 days
Nashville PredatorsColorado Avalanche
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 5−5
Dec 13, 2025at COLCOL 4 − 2
Dec 9, 2025at NSHNSH 4 − 3 SO
Nov 22, 2025at NSHCOL 3 − 0
Feb 22, 2025at NSHNSH 2 − 1
Dec 14, 2024at COLCOL 5 − 2
Nov 11, 2024at COLCOL 3 − 2 OT
Nov 2, 2024at NSHNSH 5 − 2
Mar 30, 2024at COLCOL 7 − 4
Mar 2, 2024at NSHNSH 5 − 1
Nov 20, 2023at NSHNSH 4 − 3

NSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jan 13vs EDM4 − 3W
Jan 11vs WSH3 − 2W
Jan 10vs CHI0 − 3L
Jan 8vs NYI2 − 1W
Jan 6at EDM2 − 6L
Jan 3at CGY4 − 3W
Jan 1at SEA1 − 4L
Dec 31, 2025at VGK4 − 2W
Dec 29, 2025at UTAH4 − 3W
Dec 27, 2025at STL2 − 3L

COL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jan 12vs TOR3 − 4L
Jan 10vs CBJ4 − 0W
Jan 8vs OTT8 − 2W
Jan 6at TB2 − 4L
Jan 4at FLA1 − 2L
Jan 3at CAR5 − 3W
Dec 31, 2025vs STL6 − 1W
Dec 29, 2025vs LA5 − 2W
Dec 27, 2025at VGK6 − 5W
Dec 23, 2025vs UTAH1 − 0W