bayesRatings

Ducks at Oilers

NHL · Monday, Jan 26 · 7:30 PM CT · Rogers Place · Final ANA 4 – EDM 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
ANA1214
EDM1427
Team box
ANA·EDM
41
shots
32
3 of 4
power play
1 of 3
52.2
faceoff %
47.8
25
hits
13
15
blocked shots
10
6
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Ville HussoANA3025.833
Tristan JarryEDM4137.902

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
EDM +3
ANA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: EDM 3 · ANA 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ANA 38%, EDM 62% · Updated Jan 26

Expected margin
EDM by 1.0
Expected score
EDM 4.0 – 3.0 ANA
Expected total
7.0
DucksThe matchupOilers
+165Our fair odds−165
3.0Expected goals4.0
−0.19Power rating+0.15
3.3Goals / game3.4
3.5Allowed / game3.2
30.0Shots / game29.4
46.8Faceoff %52.4
21.1Hits / game17.1
28−24Season record26−27
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ANA chance · EDM chance
Our model fair37.7%62.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ANAAnaheim Ducks+16538%————
EDMEdmonton Oilers−16562%————
SpreadEDM by 1.0
ANAAnaheim Ducks+1our margin————
EDMEdmonton Oilers−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.0
Over7.0our total————
Under7.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Edmonton Oilers by 1.0 expected
Anaheim Ducks by 7 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 1%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 3%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 7%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 6%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 20%Edmonton Oilers by 1 goal: 17%Edmonton Oilers by 2 goals: 12%Edmonton Oilers by 3 goals: 17%Edmonton Oilers by 4 goals: 11%Edmonton Oilers by 5 goals: 5%Edmonton Oilers by 6 goals: 1%Edmonton Oilers by 7 goals: 1%
← ANA wins byEDM wins by →
Edmonton Oilers wins by 2 or more46%
Edmonton Oilers wins by 3 or more34%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more17%
Decided by one goal37%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

7.0 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 7%4 goals: 6%5 goals: 17%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 10%9 goals: 13%10 goals: 5%11 goals: 6%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 2%14 goals: 1%15 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 6.557%
Total over 7.538%
Total over 8.528%
Total from 7 to 829%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
ANAVille Husso G · last 5 starts: .896 save %, 3.33 GAAstarted
EDMTristan Jarry G · last 5 starts: .883 save %, 2.80 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ANA·EDM
Jan 25 at CGY
last game
Jan 24 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 52+ games
ANA·EDM
−0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.15
3.3
goals / game
3.4
3.5
goals allowed / game
3.2
28−24
season record
26−27
15−9
home record
13−12
13−15
away record
13−15
W7
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
5−5
30.0
shots / game
29.4
46.8
faceoff %
52.4
21.1
hits / game
17.1
15.1
blocked shots / game
14.9
4.8
takeaways / game
4.3
15.6
giveaways / game
16.4

Rating Trend

ANA · EDM · 101 days
Anaheim DucksEdmonton Oilers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · EDM 7−3
Apr 7, 2025at ANAANA 3 − 2
Mar 4, 2025at EDMANA 6 − 2
Jan 3, 2025at EDMEDM 3 − 2
Dec 29, 2024at ANAANA 5 − 3
Mar 30, 2024at EDMEDM 6 − 1
Feb 9, 2024at ANAEDM 5 − 3
Dec 31, 2023at ANAEDM 7 − 2
Nov 26, 2023at EDMEDM 8 − 2
Apr 5, 2023at ANAEDM 3 − 1
Apr 1, 2023at EDMEDM 6 − 0

ANA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W7
Jan 25at CGY4 − 3W
Jan 23at SEA4 − 2W
Jan 21at COL2 − 1W
Jan 19vs NYR5 − 3W
Jan 17vs LA2 − 1W
Jan 16at LA3 − 2W
Jan 13vs DAL3 − 1W
Jan 10at BUF3 − 5L
Jan 8at CAR2 − 5L
Jan 6at PHI2 − 5L

EDM · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jan 24vs WSH6 − 5W
Jan 22vs PIT2 − 6L
Jan 20vs NJ1 − 2L
Jan 18vs STL5 − 0W
Jan 17at VAN6 − 0W
Jan 15vs NYI0 − 1L
Jan 13at NSH3 − 4L
Jan 12at CHI4 − 1W
Jan 10vs LA3 − 4L
Jan 8at WPG4 − 3W