bayesRatings

Ducks at Kraken

NHL · Friday, Jan 23 · 9:00 PM CT · Climate Pledge Arena · Final ANA 4 – SEA 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
ANA2114
SEA0112
Team box
ANA·SEA
31
shots
22
1 of 2
power play
0 of 2
51.7
faceoff %
48.3
25
hits
21
10
blocked shots
11
4
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Lukas DostalANA2220.909
Philipp GrubauerSEA3027.900

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +3
ANA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: SEA 0 · ANA 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ANA 44%, SEA 56% · Updated Jan 23

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 3.3 – 3.0 ANA
Expected total
6.3
DucksThe matchupKraken
+125Our fair odds−125
3.0Expected goals3.3
−0.19Power rating−0.13
3.3Goals / game2.8
3.5Allowed / game3.0
30.1Shots / game25.6
46.8Faceoff %47.3
21.0Hits / game18.7
26−24Season record22−27
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ANA chance · SEA chance
Our model fair44.4%55.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ANAAnaheim Ducks+12544%————
SEASeattle Kraken−12556%————
Spreadabout even
ANAAnaheim Ducks+0.3our margin————
SEASeattle Kraken−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 2%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 5%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 10%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 9%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 19%Seattle Kraken by 1 goal: 23%Seattle Kraken by 2 goals: 10%Seattle Kraken by 3 goals: 13%Seattle Kraken by 4 goals: 7%Seattle Kraken by 5 goals: 2%Seattle Kraken by 6 goals: <1%
← ANA wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Kraken wins by 2 or more33%
Seattle Kraken wins by 3 or more23%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.547%
Total over 7.527%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .925 save %, 2.14 GAAstarted
SEAPhilipp Grubauer G · last 5 starts: .898 save %, 2.77 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ANA·SEA
Jan 21 at COL
last game
Jan 21 vs NYI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 49+ games
ANA·SEA
−0.19
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
3.3
goals / game
2.8
3.5
goals allowed / game
3.0
26−24
season record
22−27
15−9
home record
11−13
11−15
away record
11−14
W5
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
30.1
shots / game
25.6
46.8
faceoff %
47.3
21.0
hits / game
18.7
15.2
blocked shots / game
16.4
4.9
takeaways / game
4.7
15.6
giveaways / game
15.7

Rating Trend

ANA · SEA · 98 days
Anaheim DucksSeattle Kraken
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 8−2
Dec 22, 2025at ANASEA 3 − 1
Oct 9, 2025at SEASEA 3 − 1
Jan 28, 2025at SEAANA 6 − 4
Nov 27, 2024at SEAANA 5 − 2
Nov 25, 2024at ANASEA 3 − 2
Apr 5, 2024at ANASEA 3 − 1
Mar 28, 2024at SEASEA 4 − 2
Mar 26, 2024at SEASEA 4 − 0
Dec 23, 2023at ANASEA 3 − 2
Mar 30, 2023at SEASEA 4 − 1

ANA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W5
Jan 21at COL2 − 1W
Jan 19vs NYR5 − 3W
Jan 17vs LA2 − 1W
Jan 16at LA3 − 2W
Jan 13vs DAL3 − 1W
Jan 10at BUF3 − 5L
Jan 8at CAR2 − 5L
Jan 6at PHI2 − 5L
Jan 5at WSH4 − 7L
Jan 2vs MIN2 − 5L

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jan 21vs NYI4 − 1W
Jan 19vs PIT3 − 6L
Jan 17at UTAH3 − 6L
Jan 15at BOS2 − 4L
Jan 14at NJ2 − 3L
Jan 12at NYR4 − 2W
Jan 10at CAR2 − 3L
Jan 8vs MIN2 − 3L
Jan 6vs BOS7 − 4W
Jan 5at CGY5 − 1W