bayesRatings

Devils at Kraken

NHL · Sunday, Jan 25 · 2:00 PM CT · Climate Pledge Arena · Final NJ 2 – SEA 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NJ1012
SEA0134
Team box
NJ·SEA
29
shots
19
2 of 4
power play
0 of 4
50.0
faceoff %
50.0
13
hits
19
16
blocked shots
20
23
penalty minutes
13
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jacob MarkstromNJ1815.833
Joey DaccordSEA2927.931

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +3
NJ +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: SEA 2 · NJ 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NJ 47%, SEA 53% · Updated Jan 25

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 2.9 – 2.7 NJ
Expected total
5.6
DevilsThe matchupKraken
+115Our fair odds−115
2.7Expected goals2.9
−0.10Power rating−0.13
2.7Goals / game2.8
3.0Allowed / game3.0
29.5Shots / game25.5
50.6Faceoff %47.3
19.5Hits / game18.7
27−24Season record22−28
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NJ chance · SEA chance
Our model fair46.5%53.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NJNew Jersey Devils+11547%————
SEASeattle Kraken−11553%————
Spreadabout even
NJNew Jersey Devils+0.2our margin————
SEASeattle Kraken−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.6
Over5.6our total————
Under5.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New Jersey Devils by 6 goals: <1%New Jersey Devils by 5 goals: 1%New Jersey Devils by 4 goals: 4%New Jersey Devils by 3 goals: 10%New Jersey Devils by 2 goals: 9%New Jersey Devils by 1 goal: 22%Seattle Kraken by 1 goal: 23%Seattle Kraken by 2 goals: 10%Seattle Kraken by 3 goals: 12%Seattle Kraken by 4 goals: 6%Seattle Kraken by 5 goals: 2%Seattle Kraken by 6 goals: <1%
← NJ wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Kraken wins by 2 or more30%
Seattle Kraken wins by 3 or more20%
New Jersey Devils wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one goal45%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,071 past NHL games.

Total range

5.6 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 15%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 7%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: <1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.569%
Total over 5.546%
Total over 6.535%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,071 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NJJacob Markstrom G · last 5 starts: .893 save %, 2.56 GAAstarted
SEAJoey Daccord G · last 5 starts: .880 save %, 3.62 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NJ·SEA
Jan 23 at VAN
last game
Jan 23 vs ANA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 50+ games
NJ·SEA
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
2.7
goals / game
2.8
3.0
goals allowed / game
3.0
27−24
season record
22−28
12−11
home record
11−14
15−13
away record
11−14
W3
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
3−7
29.5
shots / game
25.5
50.6
faceoff %
47.3
19.5
hits / game
18.7
14.6
blocked shots / game
16.3
4.7
takeaways / game
4.7
15.4
giveaways / game
15.6

Rating Trend

NJ · SEA · 100 days
New Jersey DevilsSeattle Kraken
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · SEA 2−7
Jan 14at NJNJ 3 − 2 OT
Jan 6, 2025at SEANJ 3 − 2
Dec 6, 2024at NJNJ 3 − 2
Feb 12, 2024at NJNJ 3 − 1
Dec 7, 2023at SEANJ 2 − 1
Feb 9, 2023at NJNJ 3 − 1
Jan 19, 2023at SEASEA 4 − 3 OT
Apr 16, 2022at SEASEA 4 − 3 SO
Oct 19, 2021at NJNJ 4 − 2

NJ · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Jan 23at VAN5 − 4W
Jan 20at EDM2 − 1W
Jan 19at CGY2 − 1W
Jan 17vs CAR1 − 4L
Jan 14vs SEA3 − 2W
Jan 12at MIN5 − 2W
Jan 11at WPG3 − 4L
Jan 8at PIT1 − 4L
Jan 6at NYI0 − 9L
Jan 4vs CAR1 − 3L

SEA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jan 23vs ANA2 − 4L
Jan 21vs NYI4 − 1W
Jan 19vs PIT3 − 6L
Jan 17at UTAH3 − 6L
Jan 15at BOS2 − 4L
Jan 14at NJ2 − 3L
Jan 12at NYR4 − 2W
Jan 10at CAR2 − 3L
Jan 8vs MIN2 − 3L
Jan 6vs BOS7 − 4W