bayesRatings

Ducks at Canucks

NHL · Thursday, Jan 29 · 9:00 PM CT · Rogers Arena · Final ANA 0 – VAN 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
ANA0000
VAN0022
Team box
ANA·VAN
33
shots
26
0 of 3
power play
0 of 3
48.4
faceoff %
51.6
21
hits
10
13
blocked shots
13
6
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Teddy BluegerVAN102
Drew O'ConnorVAN101
Jake DeBruskVAN016
Filip HronekVAN012
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Lukas DostalANA2524.960
Nikita TolopiloVAN32321.000
Kevin LankinenVAN111.000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
VAN +3
ANA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: VAN 2 · ANA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ANA 52%, VAN 48% · Updated Jan 29

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ANA 3.4 – 3.2 VAN
Expected total
6.6
DucksThe matchupCanucks
−108Our fair odds+108
3.4Expected goals3.2
−0.16Power rating−0.39
3.3Goals / game2.7
3.5Allowed / game3.7
30.2Shots / game27.0
46.9Faceoff %48.5
21.2Hits / game21.5
28−25Season record17−36
7−3Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ANA chance · VAN chance
Our model fair51.9%48.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ANAAnaheim Ducks−10852%————
VANVancouver Canucks+10848%————
Spreadabout even
ANAAnaheim Ducks−0.2our margin————
VANVancouver Canucks+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.6
Over6.6our total————
Under6.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: 1%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 3%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 7%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 12%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 10%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 19%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 22%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 9%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 10%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 5%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: 2%Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: <1%
← ANA wins byVAN wins by →
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more33%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 3 or more23%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.6 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.562%
Total over 6.551%
Total over 7.532%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .926 save %, 2.11 GAAstarted
VANNikita Tolopilo G · last 5 starts: .879 save %, 3.91 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ANA·VAN
Jan 26 at EDM
last game
Jan 27 vs SJ
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
5th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 53+ games
ANA·VAN
−0.16
rating (0 = average)
−0.39
3.3
goals / game
2.7
3.5
goals allowed / game
3.7
28−25
season record
17−36
15−9
home record
5−20
13−16
away record
12−16
L1
streak
L3
7−3
last 10
1−9
30.2
shots / game
27.0
46.9
faceoff %
48.5
21.2
hits / game
21.5
15.1
blocked shots / game
13.9
4.9
takeaways / game
4.4
15.5
giveaways / game
15.4

Rating Trend

ANA · VAN · 104 days
Anaheim DucksVancouver Canucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · VAN 9−1
Nov 26, 2025at ANAVAN 5 − 4
Apr 5, 2025at VANVAN 6 − 2
Mar 5, 2025at VANVAN 3 − 2
Feb 27, 2025at ANAANA 5 − 2
Nov 5, 2024at ANAVAN 5 − 1
Mar 31, 2024at VANVAN 3 − 2
Mar 3, 2024at ANAVAN 2 − 1
Nov 28, 2023at VANVAN 3 − 1
Apr 11, 2023at ANAVAN 3 − 2
Mar 19, 2023at ANAVAN 2 − 1

ANA · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jan 26at EDM4 − 7L
Jan 25at CGY4 − 3W
Jan 23at SEA4 − 2W
Jan 21at COL2 − 1W
Jan 19vs NYR5 − 3W
Jan 17vs LA2 − 1W
Jan 16at LA3 − 2W
Jan 13vs DAL3 − 1W
Jan 10at BUF3 − 5L
Jan 8at CAR2 − 5L

VAN · Last 10

1−9 · streak L3
Jan 27vs SJ2 − 5L
Jan 25vs PIT2 − 3L
Jan 23vs NJ4 − 5L
Jan 21vs WSH4 − 3W
Jan 19vs NYI3 − 4L
Jan 17vs EDM0 − 6L
Jan 15at CBJ1 − 4L
Jan 13at OTT1 − 2L
Jan 12at MTL3 − 6L
Jan 10at TOR0 − 5L