bayesRatings

Kings at Flyers

NHL · Saturday, Jan 31 · 11:30 AM CT · Xfinity Mobile Arena · Final LA 3 – PHI 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
LA20013
PHI01102
Team box
LA·PHI
21
shots
21
0 of 2
power play
1 of 2
47.1
faceoff %
52.9
25
hits
29
11
blocked shots
16
4
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Darcy KuemperLA2119.905
Dan VladarPHI2118.857

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +3
LA +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: PHI 0 · LA 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LA 50%, PHI 50% · Updated Jan 31

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
LA 3.0 – 2.8 PHI
Expected total
5.8
KingsThe matchupFlyers
+102Our fair odds−102
3.0Expected goals2.8
−0.00Power rating−0.14
2.7Goals / game3.0
2.8Allowed / game3.3
27.9Shots / game26.0
48.5Faceoff %49.0
18.1Hits / game22.3
22−30Season record24−29
4−6Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LA chance · PHI chance
Our model fair49.5%50.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALos Angeles Kings+10250%————
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers−10250%————
Spreadabout even
LALos Angeles Kings−0.2our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.8
Over5.8our total————
Under5.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: <1%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 2%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 6%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 13%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 11%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 17%Philadelphia Flyers by 1 goal: 26%Philadelphia Flyers by 2 goals: 9%Philadelphia Flyers by 3 goals: 9%Philadelphia Flyers by 4 goals: 4%Philadelphia Flyers by 5 goals: 1%Philadelphia Flyers by 6 goals: <1%
← LA wins byPHI wins by →
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more32%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 3 or more22%
Philadelphia Flyers wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.8 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.572%
Total over 5.549%
Total over 6.538%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
LADarcy Kuemper G · last 5 starts: .894 save %, 2.72 GAAstarted
PHIDan Vladar G · last 5 starts: .884 save %, 2.83 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LA·PHI
Jan 29 at BUF
last game
Jan 29 at BOS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 52+ games
LA·PHI
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
2.7
goals / game
3.0
2.8
goals allowed / game
3.3
22−30
season record
24−29
8−17
home record
12−14
14−13
away record
12−15
L1
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
2−8
27.9
shots / game
26.0
48.5
faceoff %
49.0
18.1
hits / game
22.3
13.6
blocked shots / game
15.1
4.6
takeaways / game
4.1
16.7
giveaways / game
14.6

Rating Trend

LA · PHI · 106 days
Los Angeles KingsPhiladelphia Flyers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · PHI 3−5
Dec 29, 2024at LALA 5 − 4
Dec 19, 2024at PHILA 7 − 3
Nov 11, 2023at LAPHI 4 − 2
Nov 4, 2023at PHILA 5 − 0
Jan 24, 2023at PHILA 4 − 3 OT
Dec 31, 2022at LAPHI 4 − 2
Jan 29, 2022at PHIPHI 4 − 3 OT
Jan 1, 2022at LALA 6 − 3

LA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jan 29at BUF1 − 4L
Jan 27at DET3 − 1W
Jan 24at STL5 − 4W
Jan 20vs NYR4 − 3W
Jan 17at ANA1 − 2L
Jan 16vs ANA2 − 3L
Jan 14vs VGK2 − 3L
Jan 12vs DAL1 − 3L
Jan 10at EDM4 − 3W
Jan 9at WPG1 − 5L

PHI · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Jan 29at BOS3 − 6L
Jan 28at CBJ3 − 5L
Jan 26vs NYI0 − 4L
Jan 23at COL7 − 3W
Jan 21at UTAH4 − 5L
Jan 19at VGK2 − 1W
Jan 17vs NYR3 − 6L
Jan 15at PIT3 − 6L
Jan 14at BUF2 − 5L
Jan 12vs TB1 − 5L