bayesRatings

Islanders at Canadiens

NHL · Thursday, Feb 26 · 6:00 PM CT · Bell Centre · Final NYI 4 – MTL 3
← NHL / Feb 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
NYI02114
MTL11103
Team box
NYI·MTL
26
shots
25
1 of 2
power play
2 of 3
48.5
faceoff %
51.5
26
hits
22
20
blocked shots
20
6
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Noah DobsonMTL203
Matthew SchaeferNYI203
Simon HolmstromNYI021
Cole CaufieldMTL104
Anders LeeNYI104
Jean-Gabriel PageauNYI103
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Ilya SorokinNYI2522.880
Sam MontembeaultMTL2622.846

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MTL +3
NYI +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: MTL 2 · NYI 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYI 44%, MTL 56% · Updated Feb 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MTL 3.3 – 2.9 NYI
Expected total
6.2
IslandersThe matchupCanadiens
+126Our fair odds−126
2.9Expected goals3.3
−0.00Power rating+0.07
2.9Goals / game3.5
2.8Allowed / game3.3
27.4Shots / game26.2
51.9Faceoff %50.7
18.6Hits / game21.8
32−26Season record32−25
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYI chance · MTL chance
Our model fair44.2%55.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYINew York Islanders+12644%————
MTLMontreal Canadiens−12656%————
Spreadabout even
NYINew York Islanders+0.4our margin————
MTLMontreal Canadiens−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Islanders by 6 goals: <1%New York Islanders by 5 goals: 1%New York Islanders by 4 goals: 4%New York Islanders by 3 goals: 9%New York Islanders by 2 goals: 8%New York Islanders by 1 goal: 21%Montreal Canadiens by 1 goal: 21%Montreal Canadiens by 2 goals: 11%Montreal Canadiens by 3 goals: 13%Montreal Canadiens by 4 goals: 7%Montreal Canadiens by 5 goals: 3%Montreal Canadiens by 6 goals: 1%
← NYI wins byMTL wins by →
Montreal Canadiens wins by 2 or more35%
Montreal Canadiens wins by 3 or more24%
New York Islanders wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYIIlya Sorokin G · last 5 starts: .930 save %, 2.01 GAAstarted
MTLSam Montembeault G · last 5 starts: .893 save %, 3.20 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYI·MTL
Feb 5 at NJ
last game
Feb 4 at WPG
20 days
days of rest
21 days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 57+ games
NYI·MTL
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
2.9
goals / game
3.5
2.8
goals allowed / game
3.3
32−26
season record
32−25
16−12
home record
16−12
16−14
away record
16−13
W2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
6−4
27.4
shots / game
26.2
51.9
faceoff %
50.7
18.6
hits / game
21.8
14.7
blocked shots / game
16.5
4.4
takeaways / game
4.6
14.8
giveaways / game
13.4

Rating Trend

NYI · MTL · 113 days
New York IslandersMontreal Canadiens
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MTL 4−6
Mar 20, 2025at NYINYI 4 − 3 OT
Dec 3, 2024at MTLMTL 2 − 1 OT
Oct 19, 2024at NYINYI 4 − 3 SO
Apr 11, 2024at NYINYI 3 − 2 OT
Jan 25, 2024at MTLMTL 4 − 3
Dec 16, 2023at MTLMTL 5 − 3
Apr 12, 2023at NYINYI 4 − 2
Feb 11, 2023at MTLMTL 4 − 3 OT
Jan 14, 2023at NYINYI 2 − 1
Apr 15, 2022at MTLNYI 3 − 0

NYI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Feb 5at NJ3 − 1W
Feb 3vs PIT5 − 4W
Feb 2at WSH1 − 4L
Jan 31vs NSH3 − 4L
Jan 29at NYR2 − 1W
Jan 28vs NYR5 − 2W
Jan 26at PHI4 − 0W
Jan 24vs BUF0 − 5L
Jan 21at SEA1 − 4L
Jan 19at VAN4 − 3W

MTL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Feb 4at WPG5 − 1W
Feb 2at MIN3 − 4L
Jan 31at BUF4 − 2W
Jan 29vs COL7 − 3W
Jan 27vs VGK3 − 2W
Jan 24at BOS3 − 4L
Jan 22vs BUF2 − 4L
Jan 20vs MIN4 − 3W
Jan 17at OTT6 − 5W
Jan 15at BUF3 − 5L