bayesRatings

Islanders at Rangers

NHL · Thursday, Jan 29 · 6:00 PM CT · Madison Square Garden · Final NYI 2 – NYR 1
← NHL / Jan 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYI0202
NYR0011
Team box
NYI·NYR
21
shots
21
0 of 3
power play
1 of 3
37.5
faceoff %
62.5
16
hits
31
17
blocked shots
10
8
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Mika ZibanejadNYR105
Carson SoucyNYI102
Matthew SchaeferNYI102
Bo HorvatNYI012
Maxim ShabanovNYI012
J.T. MillerNYR012
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Ilya SorokinNYI2120.952
Jonathan QuickNYR2119.905

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYR +3
NYI +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: NYR 0 · NYI 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYI 49%, NYR 51% · Updated Jan 29

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYR 2.9 – 2.9 NYI
Expected total
5.7
IslandersThe matchupRangers
+106Our fair odds−106
2.9Expected goals2.9
−0.02Power rating−0.13
2.9Goals / game2.7
2.8Allowed / game3.1
27.8Shots / game25.8
51.7Faceoff %54.4
18.4Hits / game26.2
29−24Season record22−32
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYI chance · NYR chance
Our model fair48.6%51.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYINew York Islanders+10649%————
NYRNew York Rangers−10651%————
Spreadabout even
NYINew York IslandersPKour margin————
NYRNew York RangersPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 5.7
Over5.7our total————
Under5.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Islanders by 5 goals: 2%New York Islanders by 4 goals: 5%New York Islanders by 3 goals: 11%New York Islanders by 2 goals: 10%New York Islanders by 1 goal: 20%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 24%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 10%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 11%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 5%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 2%
← NYI wins byNYR wins by →
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more27%
New York Rangers wins by 3 or more18%
New York Islanders wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.7 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.570%
Total over 5.548%
Total over 6.537%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYIIlya Sorokin G · last 5 starts: .918 save %, 2.24 GAAstarted
NYRJonathan Quick G · last 5 starts: .810 save %, 5.44 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYI·NYR
Jan 28 vs NYR
last game
Jan 28 at NYI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 53+ games
NYI·NYR
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
2.9
goals / game
2.7
2.8
goals allowed / game
3.1
29−24
season record
22−32
15−11
home record
6−17
14−13
away record
16−15
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
2−8
27.8
shots / game
25.8
51.7
faceoff %
54.4
18.4
hits / game
26.2
14.9
blocked shots / game
15.1
4.5
takeaways / game
4.5
14.8
giveaways / game
14.8

Rating Trend

NYI · NYR · 104 days
New York IslandersNew York Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYR 6−4
Jan 28at NYINYI 5 − 2
Dec 27, 2025at NYINYI 2 − 0
Nov 8, 2025at NYRNYI 5 − 0
Apr 10, 2025at NYINYR 9 − 2
Mar 3, 2025at NYRNYR 4 − 0
Feb 25, 2025at NYINYR 5 − 1
Nov 3, 2024at NYRNYR 5 − 2
Apr 13, 2024at NYRNYR 3 − 2 SO
Apr 9, 2024at NYINYI 4 − 2
Mar 17, 2024at NYRNYR 5 − 2

NYI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jan 28vs NYR5 − 2W
Jan 26at PHI4 − 0W
Jan 24vs BUF0 − 5L
Jan 21at SEA1 − 4L
Jan 19at VAN4 − 3W
Jan 17at CGY2 − 4L
Jan 15at EDM1 − 0W
Jan 13at WPG4 − 5L
Jan 10at MIN4 − 3W
Jan 8at NSH1 − 2L

NYR · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Jan 28at NYI2 − 5L
Jan 26vs BOS4 − 3W
Jan 23at SJ1 − 3L
Jan 20at LA3 − 4L
Jan 19at ANA3 − 5L
Jan 17at PHI6 − 3W
Jan 14vs OTT4 − 8L
Jan 12vs SEA2 − 4L
Jan 10at BOS2 − 10L
Jan 8vs BUF2 − 5L