bayesRatings

Bruins at Blue Jackets

NHL · Sunday, Mar 29 · 4:00 PM CT · Nationwide Arena · Final BOS 4 – CBJ 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
BOS003014
CBJ300003
Team box
BOS·CBJ
39
shots
25
2 of 4
power play
1 of 2
54.2
faceoff %
45.8
21
hits
23
14
blocked shots
24
16
penalty minutes
20
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jeremy SwaymanBOS2522.880
Jet GreavesCBJ3936.923

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CBJ +3
BOS +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: CBJ 3 · BOS 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 45%, CBJ 55% · Updated Mar 29

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CBJ 3.4 – 3.1 BOS
Expected total
6.4
BruinsThe matchupBlue Jackets
+121Our fair odds−121
3.1Expected goals3.4
+0.04Power rating+0.09
3.4Goals / game3.2
3.1Allowed / game3.0
27.3Shots / game29.7
52.6Faceoff %50.4
23.3Hits / game19.5
41−32Season record38−35
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · CBJ chance
Our model fair45.2%54.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Bruins+12145%————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets−12155%————
Spreadabout even
BOSBoston Bruins+0.3our margin————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Boston Bruins by 6 goals: <1%Boston Bruins by 5 goals: 2%Boston Bruins by 4 goals: 5%Boston Bruins by 3 goals: 10%Boston Bruins by 2 goals: 9%Boston Bruins by 1 goal: 20%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 22%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 10%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 13%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 7%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 3%Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: 1%
← BOS wins byCBJ wins by →
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more33%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 3 or more23%
Boston Bruins wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.559%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
BOSJeremy Swayman G · last 5 starts: .928 save %, 2.37 GAAstarted
CBJJet Greaves G · last 5 starts: .926 save %, 1.83 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·CBJ
Mar 28 vs MIN
last game
Mar 28 vs SJ
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 73+ games
BOS·CBJ
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
3.4
goals / game
3.2
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.0
41−32
season record
38−35
27−11
home record
20−16
14−21
away record
18−19
W2
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
6−4
27.3
shots / game
29.7
52.6
faceoff %
50.4
23.3
hits / game
19.5
15.3
blocked shots / game
14.6
4.6
takeaways / game
5.0
16.2
giveaways / game
15.5

Rating Trend

BOS · CBJ · 144 days
Boston BruinsColumbus Blue Jackets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CBJ 3−7
Feb 26at BOSBOS 4 − 2
Dec 28, 2024at BOSBOS 4 − 0
Dec 27, 2024at CBJCBJ 6 − 2
Nov 18, 2024at BOSCBJ 5 − 1
Jan 2, 2024at CBJBOS 4 − 1
Dec 3, 2023at BOSBOS 3 − 1
Nov 27, 2023at CBJCBJ 5 − 2
Mar 30, 2023at BOSBOS 2 − 1 OT
Dec 17, 2022at BOSBOS 4 − 2
Oct 28, 2022at CBJBOS 4 − 0

BOS · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Mar 28vs MIN6 − 3W
Mar 25at BUF4 − 3W
Mar 24vs TOR2 − 4L
Mar 21at DET4 − 2W
Mar 19vs WPG6 − 1W
Mar 17at MTL2 − 3L
Mar 16at NJ3 − 4L
Mar 14at WSH3 − 2W
Mar 12vs SJ2 − 4L
Mar 10vs LA2 − 1W

CBJ · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Mar 28vs SJ2 − 3L
Mar 26at MTL1 − 2L
Mar 24at PHI3 − 2W
Mar 22at NYI0 − 1L
Mar 21vs SEA5 − 2W
Mar 19vs NYR6 − 3W
Mar 17vs CAR5 − 1W
Mar 14at PHI2 − 1W
Mar 12at FLA1 − 2L
Mar 10at TB5 − 2W