bayesRatings

Blue Jackets at Canadiens

NHL · Thursday, Mar 26 · 6:00 PM CT · Bell Centre · Final CBJ 1 – MTL 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
CBJ1001
MTL1012
Team box
CBJ·MTL
26
shots
20
0 of 1
power play
0 of 2
48.9
faceoff %
51.1
27
hits
24
8
blocked shots
17
6
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Zack BolducMTL112
Damon SeversonCBJ102
Jayden StrubleMTL102
Mike MathesonMTL013
Lane HutsonMTL013
Boone JennerCBJ011
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jet GreavesCBJ2018.900
Jakub DobesMTL2625.962

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MTL +3
CBJ +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: MTL 1 · CBJ 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CBJ 47%, MTL 53% · Updated Mar 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MTL 3.5 – 3.5 CBJ
Expected total
6.9
Blue JacketsThe matchupCanadiens
+115Our fair odds−115
3.5Expected goals3.5
+0.09Power rating+0.08
3.3Goals / game3.6
3.1Allowed / game3.3
29.8Shots / game26.6
50.4Faceoff %51.0
19.4Hits / game21.8
38−33Season record39−31
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CBJ chance · MTL chance
Our model fair46.6%53.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+11547%————
MTLMontreal Canadiens−11553%————
Spreadabout even
CBJColumbus Blue JacketsPKour margin————
MTLMontreal CanadiensPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 6.9
Over6.9our total————
Under6.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: 1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 2%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 6%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 12%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 10%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 16%Montreal Canadiens by 1 goal: 24%Montreal Canadiens by 2 goals: 9%Montreal Canadiens by 3 goals: 11%Montreal Canadiens by 4 goals: 6%Montreal Canadiens by 5 goals: 2%Montreal Canadiens by 6 goals: <1%
← CBJ wins byMTL wins by →
Montreal Canadiens wins by 2 or more29%
Montreal Canadiens wins by 3 or more20%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.9 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 7%4 goals: 6%5 goals: 18%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 20%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 13%10 goals: 5%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 2%14 goals: <1%15 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 6.556%
Total over 7.536%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CBJJet Greaves G · last 5 starts: .934 save %, 1.59 GAAstarted
MTLJakub Dobes G · last 5 starts: .927 save %, 2.00 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CBJ·MTL
Mar 24 at PHI
last game
Mar 24 vs CAR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 70+ games
CBJ·MTL
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
3.3
goals / game
3.6
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.3
38−33
season record
39−31
20−15
home record
21−15
18−18
away record
18−16
W1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
29.8
shots / game
26.6
50.4
faceoff %
51.0
19.4
hits / game
21.8
14.7
blocked shots / game
16.6
5.0
takeaways / game
4.5
15.5
giveaways / game
13.7

Rating Trend

CBJ · MTL · 141 days
Columbus Blue JacketsMontreal Canadiens
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MTL 7−3
Nov 17, 2025at CBJCBJ 4 − 3 SO
Dec 23, 2024at CBJCBJ 5 − 4
Nov 27, 2024at CBJMTL 4 − 3 OT
Nov 16, 2024at MTLMTL 5 − 1
Mar 12, 2024at MTLMTL 3 − 0
Nov 29, 2023at CBJMTL 4 − 2
Oct 26, 2023at MTLMTL 4 − 3 OT
Mar 25, 2023at MTLMTL 8 − 2
Nov 23, 2022at CBJMTL 3 − 1
Nov 17, 2022at CBJCBJ 6 − 4

CBJ · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 24at PHI3 − 2W
Mar 22at NYI0 − 1L
Mar 21vs SEA5 − 2W
Mar 19vs NYR6 − 3W
Mar 17vs CAR5 − 1W
Mar 14at PHI2 − 1W
Mar 12at FLA1 − 2L
Mar 10at TB5 − 2W
Mar 9vs LA4 − 5L
Mar 7vs UTAH4 − 5L

MTL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Mar 24vs CAR5 − 2W
Mar 21vs NYI7 − 3W
Mar 19at DET1 − 3L
Mar 17vs BOS3 − 2W
Mar 15vs ANA3 − 4L
Mar 14vs SJ2 − 4L
Mar 11at OTT3 − 2W
Mar 10vs TOR3 − 1W
Mar 7at LA4 − 3W
Mar 6at ANA5 − 6L