bayesRatings

Bruins at Blue Jackets

NHL · Sunday, Apr 12 · 5:00 PM CT · Nationwide Arena · Final BOS 3 – CBJ 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
BOS1113
CBJ1012
Team box
BOS·CBJ
22
shots
35
0 of 0
power play
0 of 3
45.6
faceoff %
54.4
12
hits
20
11
blocked shots
4
6
penalty minutes
0
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Joonas KorpisaloBOS3533.943
Jet GreavesCBJ2219.864

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CBJ +3
BOS +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: CBJ 1 · BOS 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 47%, CBJ 53% · Updated Apr 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CBJ 3.2 – 3.0 BOS
Expected total
6.2
BruinsThe matchupBlue Jackets
+112Our fair odds−112
3.0Expected goals3.2
+0.05Power rating+0.01
3.3Goals / game3.1
3.1Allowed / game3.1
27.1Shots / game29.3
53.1Faceoff %50.6
22.9Hits / game19.4
43−37Season record40−40
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · CBJ chance
Our model fair47.2%52.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Bruins+11247%————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets−11253%————
Spreadabout even
BOSBoston Bruins+0.2our margin————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Boston Bruins by 6 goals: <1%Boston Bruins by 5 goals: 2%Boston Bruins by 4 goals: 5%Boston Bruins by 3 goals: 10%Boston Bruins by 2 goals: 9%Boston Bruins by 1 goal: 21%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 21%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 10%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 12%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 6%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 2%Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: <1%
← BOS wins byCBJ wins by →
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more32%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 3 or more22%
Boston Bruins wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
BOSJoonas Korpisalo G · last 5 starts: .894 save %, 2.79 GAAstarted
CBJJet Greaves G · last 5 starts: .893 save %, 3.01 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·CBJ
Apr 11 vs TB
last game
Apr 11 at MTL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 80+ games
BOS·CBJ
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
3.3
goals / game
3.1
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.1
43−37
season record
40−40
28−12
home record
20−19
15−25
away record
20−21
L5
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
3−7
27.1
shots / game
29.3
53.1
faceoff %
50.6
22.9
hits / game
19.4
15.1
blocked shots / game
14.7
4.6
takeaways / game
5.0
16.4
giveaways / game
15.5

Rating Trend

BOS · CBJ · 157 days
Boston BruinsColumbus Blue Jackets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CBJ 3−7
Mar 29at CBJBOS 4 − 3 SO
Feb 26at BOSBOS 4 − 2
Dec 28, 2024at BOSBOS 4 − 0
Dec 27, 2024at CBJCBJ 6 − 2
Nov 18, 2024at BOSCBJ 5 − 1
Jan 2, 2024at CBJBOS 4 − 1
Dec 3, 2023at BOSBOS 3 − 1
Nov 27, 2023at CBJCBJ 5 − 2
Mar 30, 2023at BOSBOS 2 − 1 OT
Dec 17, 2022at BOSBOS 4 − 2

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
Apr 11vs TB1 − 2L
Apr 7at CAR5 − 6L
Apr 5at PHI1 − 2L
Apr 4at TB1 − 3L
Apr 2at FLA1 − 2L
Mar 31vs DAL6 − 3W
Mar 29at CBJ4 − 3W
Mar 28vs MIN6 − 3W
Mar 25at BUF4 − 3W
Mar 24vs TOR2 − 4L

CBJ · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Apr 11at MTL5 − 2W
Apr 9at BUF0 − 5L
Apr 7at DET4 − 3W
Apr 4vs WPG1 − 2L
Apr 2at CAR1 − 5L
Mar 31vs CAR2 − 5L
Mar 29vs BOS3 − 4L
Mar 28vs SJ2 − 3L
Mar 26at MTL1 − 2L
Mar 24at PHI3 − 2W