bayesRatings

Jets at Blue Jackets

NHL · Saturday, Apr 4 · 6:00 PM CT · Nationwide Arena · Final WPG 2 – CBJ 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
WPG0112
CBJ1001
Team box
WPG·CBJ
26
shots
16
0 of 1
power play
0 of 1
27.3
faceoff %
72.7
28
hits
16
12
blocked shots
16
2
penalty minutes
2
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Connor HellebuyckWPG1615.938
Jet GreavesCBJ2624.923

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CBJ +3
WPG +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: CBJ 1 · WPG 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WPG 45%, CBJ 55% · Updated Apr 4

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CBJ 3.2 – 2.8 WPG
Expected total
5.9
JetsThe matchupBlue Jackets
+121Our fair odds−121
2.8Expected goals3.2
+0.01Power rating+0.06
2.8Goals / game3.2
3.1Allowed / game3.1
26.3Shots / game29.3
51.0Faceoff %50.1
21.9Hits / game19.5
32−43Season record38−38
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WPG chance · CBJ chance
Our model fair45.2%54.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WPGWinnipeg Jets+12145%————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets−12155%————
Spreadabout even
WPGWinnipeg Jets+0.4our margin————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.9
Over5.9our total————
Under5.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Winnipeg Jets by 6 goals: <1%Winnipeg Jets by 5 goals: 1%Winnipeg Jets by 4 goals: 4%Winnipeg Jets by 3 goals: 9%Winnipeg Jets by 2 goals: 8%Winnipeg Jets by 1 goal: 23%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 20%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 11%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 13%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 7%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 3%Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: 1%
← WPG wins byCBJ wins by →
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more35%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 3 or more24%
Winnipeg Jets wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.9 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.573%
Total over 5.551%
Total over 6.540%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
WPGConnor Hellebuyck G · last 5 starts: .906 save %, 2.42 GAAstarted
CBJJet Greaves G · last 5 starts: .914 save %, 2.40 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WPG·CBJ
Apr 2 at DAL
last game
Apr 2 at CAR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 75+ games
WPG·CBJ
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
2.8
goals / game
3.2
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.1
32−43
season record
38−38
18−20
home record
20−18
14−23
away record
18−20
L1
streak
L5
5−5
last 10
4−6
26.3
shots / game
29.3
51.0
faceoff %
50.1
21.9
hits / game
19.5
13.8
blocked shots / game
14.7
4.1
takeaways / game
5.1
14.4
giveaways / game
15.5

Rating Trend

WPG · CBJ · 150 days
Winnipeg JetsColumbus Blue Jackets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CBJ 4−5
Nov 18, 2025at WPGWPG 5 − 2
Dec 8, 2024at WPGCBJ 4 − 1
Nov 1, 2024at CBJWPG 6 − 2
Mar 17, 2024at CBJWPG 6 − 1
Jan 9, 2024at WPGWPG 5 − 0
Feb 16, 2023at CBJCBJ 3 − 1
Dec 2, 2022at WPGCBJ 4 − 1
Mar 25, 2022at WPGWPG 4 − 3 OT
Nov 24, 2021at CBJCBJ 3 − 0

WPG · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 2at DAL0 − 3L
Mar 31at CHI4 − 3W
Mar 28at COL4 − 2W
Mar 26vs COL2 − 3L
Mar 24vs VGK4 − 1W
Mar 22at NYR3 − 2W
Mar 21at PIT4 − 5L
Mar 19at BOS1 − 6L
Mar 17vs NSH3 − 4L
Mar 15vs STL3 − 2W

CBJ · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
Apr 2at CAR1 − 5L
Mar 31vs CAR2 − 5L
Mar 29vs BOS3 − 4L
Mar 28vs SJ2 − 3L
Mar 26at MTL1 − 2L
Mar 24at PHI3 − 2W
Mar 22at NYI0 − 1L
Mar 21vs SEA5 − 2W
Mar 19vs NYR6 − 3W
Mar 17vs CAR5 − 1W