bayesRatings

Blue Jackets at Hurricanes

NHL · Thursday, Apr 2 · 6:00 PM CT · Lenovo Center · Final CBJ 1 – CAR 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
CBJ0101
CAR3115
Team box
CBJ·CAR
10
shots
21
0 of 3
power play
1 of 2
39.5
faceoff %
60.5
18
hits
19
14
blocked shots
19
6
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Elvis MerzlikinsCBJ2116.762
Frederik AndersenCAR109.900

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CAR +4
CBJ +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: CAR 4 · CBJ 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CBJ 41%, CAR 59% · Updated Apr 2

Expected margin
CAR by 0.5
Expected score
CAR 3.5 – 3.0 CBJ
Expected total
6.5
Blue JacketsThe matchupHurricanes
+144Our fair odds−144
3.0Expected goals3.5
+0.06Power rating+0.29
3.2Goals / game3.6
3.1Allowed / game2.9
29.5Shots / game32.6
50.2Faceoff %50.6
19.6Hits / game19.8
38−37Season record47−27
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CBJ chance · CAR chance
Our model fair41.1%58.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+14441%————
CARCarolina Hurricanes−14459%————
SpreadCAR by 0.5
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+0.5our margin————
CARCarolina Hurricanes−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Carolina Hurricanes by 0.5 expected
Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: <1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 4%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 9%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 8%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 18%Carolina Hurricanes by 1 goal: 23%Carolina Hurricanes by 2 goals: 11%Carolina Hurricanes by 3 goals: 14%Carolina Hurricanes by 4 goals: 8%Carolina Hurricanes by 5 goals: 3%Carolina Hurricanes by 6 goals: 1%
← CBJ wins byCAR wins by →
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 2 or more36%
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 3 or more25%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.530%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CBJElvis Merzlikins G · last 5 starts: .880 save %, 2.77 GAAstarted
CARFrederik Andersen G · last 5 starts: .862 save %, 3.03 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CBJ·CAR
Mar 31 vs CAR
last game
Mar 31 at CBJ
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 74+ games
CBJ·CAR
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.29
3.2
goals / game
3.6
3.1
goals allowed / game
2.9
38−37
season record
47−27
20−18
home record
26−12
18−19
away record
21−15
L4
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
29.5
shots / game
32.6
50.2
faceoff %
50.6
19.6
hits / game
19.8
14.7
blocked shots / game
11.1
5.0
takeaways / game
5.9
15.5
giveaways / game
16.3

Rating Trend

CBJ · CAR · 148 days
Columbus Blue JacketsCarolina Hurricanes
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CAR 6−4
Mar 31at CBJCAR 5 − 2
Mar 17at CBJCBJ 5 − 1
Dec 9, 2025at CARCAR 4 − 1
Jan 23, 2025at CARCAR 7 − 4
Dec 31, 2024at CBJCBJ 4 − 3 SO
Dec 15, 2024at CARCAR 4 − 1
Nov 23, 2024at CBJCBJ 5 − 4 SO
Apr 16, 2024at CBJCBJ 6 − 3
Apr 7, 2024at CARCAR 3 − 0
Feb 29, 2024at CBJCAR 4 − 2

CBJ · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
Mar 31vs CAR2 − 5L
Mar 29vs BOS3 − 4L
Mar 28vs SJ2 − 3L
Mar 26at MTL1 − 2L
Mar 24at PHI3 − 2W
Mar 22at NYI0 − 1L
Mar 21vs SEA5 − 2W
Mar 19vs NYR6 − 3W
Mar 17vs CAR5 − 1W
Mar 14at PHI2 − 1W

CAR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 31at CBJ5 − 2W
Mar 29vs MTL1 − 3L
Mar 28vs NJ5 − 2W
Mar 24at MTL2 − 5L
Mar 22at PIT5 − 1W
Mar 20at TOR4 − 3W
Mar 18vs PIT6 − 5W
Mar 17at CBJ1 − 5L
Mar 14at TB4 − 2W
Mar 12vs STL1 − 3L