bayesRatings

Blue Jackets at Red Wings

NHL · Tuesday, Apr 7 · 6:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final CBJ 4 – DET 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
CBJ111014
DET111003
Team box
CBJ·DET
35
shots
37
1 of 4
power play
1 of 1
54.0
faceoff %
46.0
20
hits
26
23
blocked shots
25
4
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jet GreavesCBJ3734.919
John GibsonDET3532.914

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +3
CBJ +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: DET 1 · CBJ 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CBJ 47%, DET 53% · Updated Apr 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DET 3.0 – 3.0 CBJ
Expected total
6.0
Blue JacketsThe matchupRed Wings
+112Our fair odds−112
3.0Expected goals3.0
+0.01Power rating−0.03
3.1Goals / game2.9
3.1Allowed / game3.0
29.1Shots / game28.2
50.4Faceoff %50.9
19.5Hits / game18.0
38−39Season record40−37
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CBJ chance · DET chance
Our model fair47.2%52.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+11247%————
DETDetroit Red Wings−11253%————
Spreadabout even
CBJColumbus Blue JacketsPKour margin————
DETDetroit Red WingsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: <1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 2%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 6%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 11%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 10%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 18%Detroit Red Wings by 1 goal: 25%Detroit Red Wings by 2 goals: 9%Detroit Red Wings by 3 goals: 11%Detroit Red Wings by 4 goals: 5%Detroit Red Wings by 5 goals: 2%Detroit Red Wings by 6 goals: <1%
← CBJ wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Red Wings wins by 2 or more27%
Detroit Red Wings wins by 3 or more18%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.542%
Total over 7.523%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CBJJet Greaves G · last 5 starts: .909 save %, 2.59 GAAstarted
DETJohn Gibson G · last 5 starts: .888 save %, 2.99 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CBJ·DET
Apr 4 vs WPG
last game
Apr 5 vs MIN
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 77+ games
CBJ·DET
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
3.1
goals / game
2.9
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.0
38−39
season record
40−37
20−19
home record
20−18
18−20
away record
20−19
L6
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
4−6
29.1
shots / game
28.2
50.4
faceoff %
50.9
19.5
hits / game
18.0
14.7
blocked shots / game
16.0
5.0
takeaways / game
4.5
15.4
giveaways / game
15.2

Rating Trend

CBJ · DET · 153 days
Columbus Blue JacketsDetroit Red Wings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 6−4
Dec 4, 2025at CBJCBJ 6 − 5 SO
Nov 22, 2025at DETDET 4 − 3 OT
Mar 1, 2025at CBJCBJ 5 − 3
Feb 27, 2025at DETCBJ 5 − 2
Jan 2, 2025at CBJDET 5 − 4
Mar 19, 2024at DETDET 4 − 3 OT
Nov 11, 2023at DETDET 5 − 4
Oct 16, 2023at CBJDET 4 − 0
Jan 14, 2023at DETCBJ 4 − 3
Dec 4, 2022at CBJDET 4 − 2

CBJ · Last 10

3−7 · streak L6
Apr 4vs WPG1 − 2L
Apr 2at CAR1 − 5L
Mar 31vs CAR2 − 5L
Mar 29vs BOS3 − 4L
Mar 28vs SJ2 − 3L
Mar 26at MTL1 − 2L
Mar 24at PHI3 − 2W
Mar 22at NYI0 − 1L
Mar 21vs SEA5 − 2W
Mar 19vs NYR6 − 3W

DET · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Apr 5vs MIN4 − 5L
Apr 4at NYR1 − 4L
Apr 2at PHI4 − 2W
Mar 31at PIT1 − 5L
Mar 28vs PHI3 − 5L
Mar 27at BUF5 − 2W
Mar 24vs OTT2 − 3L
Mar 21vs BOS2 − 4L
Mar 19vs MTL3 − 1W
Mar 16vs CGY5 − 2W