bayesRatings

Blue Jackets at Canadiens

NHL · Saturday, Apr 11 · 6:00 PM CT · Bell Centre · Final CBJ 5 – MTL 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
CBJ2215
MTL1012
Team box
CBJ·MTL
33
shots
22
1 of 4
power play
1 of 4
55.6
faceoff %
44.4
15
hits
22
11
blocked shots
18
12
penalty minutes
12
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jet GreavesCBJ2220.909
Jakub DobesMTL3328.848

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MTL +3
CBJ +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: MTL 0 · CBJ 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CBJ 43%, MTL 57% · Updated Apr 11

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MTL 3.5 – 3.1 CBJ
Expected total
6.6
Blue JacketsThe matchupCanadiens
+134Our fair odds−134
3.1Expected goals3.5
+0.01Power rating+0.16
3.1Goals / game3.5
3.1Allowed / game3.1
29.3Shots / game26.4
50.5Faceoff %51.0
19.5Hits / game22.0
39−40Season record47−32
2−8Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CBJ chance · MTL chance
Our model fair42.7%57.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+13443%————
MTLMontreal Canadiens−13457%————
Spreadabout even
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+0.4our margin————
MTLMontreal Canadiens−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.6
Over6.6our total————
Under6.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: <1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 2%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 5%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 9%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 8%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 18%Montreal Canadiens by 1 goal: 23%Montreal Canadiens by 2 goals: 11%Montreal Canadiens by 3 goals: 13%Montreal Canadiens by 4 goals: 7%Montreal Canadiens by 5 goals: 3%Montreal Canadiens by 6 goals: 1%
← CBJ wins byMTL wins by →
Montreal Canadiens wins by 2 or more35%
Montreal Canadiens wins by 3 or more24%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Total range

6.6 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.562%
Total over 6.551%
Total over 7.532%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CBJJet Greaves G · last 5 starts: .898 save %, 3.15 GAAstarted
MTLJakub Dobes G · last 5 starts: .944 save %, 1.75 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CBJ·MTL
Apr 9 at BUF
last game
Apr 9 vs TB
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 79+ games
CBJ·MTL
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
3.1
goals / game
3.5
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.1
39−40
season record
47−32
20−19
home record
24−16
19−21
away record
23−16
L1
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
9−1
29.3
shots / game
26.4
50.5
faceoff %
51.0
19.5
hits / game
22.0
14.7
blocked shots / game
16.4
5.0
takeaways / game
4.5
15.4
giveaways / game
13.7

Rating Trend

CBJ · MTL · 156 days
Columbus Blue JacketsMontreal Canadiens
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MTL 8−2
Mar 26at MTLMTL 2 − 1
Nov 17, 2025at CBJCBJ 4 − 3 SO
Dec 23, 2024at CBJCBJ 5 − 4
Nov 27, 2024at CBJMTL 4 − 3 OT
Nov 16, 2024at MTLMTL 5 − 1
Mar 12, 2024at MTLMTL 3 − 0
Nov 29, 2023at CBJMTL 4 − 2
Oct 26, 2023at MTLMTL 4 − 3 OT
Mar 25, 2023at MTLMTL 8 − 2
Nov 23, 2022at CBJMTL 3 − 1

CBJ · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Apr 9at BUF0 − 5L
Apr 7at DET4 − 3W
Apr 4vs WPG1 − 2L
Apr 2at CAR1 − 5L
Mar 31vs CAR2 − 5L
Mar 29vs BOS3 − 4L
Mar 28vs SJ2 − 3L
Mar 26at MTL1 − 2L
Mar 24at PHI3 − 2W
Mar 22at NYI0 − 1L

MTL · Last 10

9−1 · streak W2
Apr 9vs TB2 − 1W
Apr 7vs FLA4 − 3W
Apr 5vs NJ0 − 3L
Apr 4at NJ4 − 3W
Apr 2at NYR3 − 2W
Mar 31at TB4 − 1W
Mar 29at CAR3 − 1W
Mar 28at NSH4 − 1W
Mar 26vs CBJ2 − 1W
Mar 24vs CAR5 − 2W