bayesRatings

Canadiens at Lightning

NHL · Tuesday, Mar 31 · 6:00 PM CT · Benchmark International Arena · Final MTL 4 – TB 1
← NHL / Mar 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
MTL1124
TB1001
Team box
MTL·TB
23
shots
37
1 of 3
power play
0 of 4
54.1
faceoff %
45.9
23
hits
21
17
blocked shots
9
32
penalty minutes
30
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Cole CaufieldMTL114
Mike MathesonMTL112
Juraj SlafkovskyMTL111
Nick SuzukiMTL105
Jake GuentzelTB102
Ivan DemidovMTL012
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jakub DobesMTL3736.973
Andrei VasilevskiyTB2119.905

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
MTL +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: TB 0 · MTL 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MTL 40%, TB 60% · Updated Mar 31

Expected margin
TB by 0.6
Expected score
TB 3.7 – 3.1 MTL
Expected total
6.8
CanadiensThe matchupLightning
+149Our fair odds−149
3.1Expected goals3.7
+0.15Power rating+0.42
3.5Goals / game3.7
3.2Allowed / game2.8
26.5Shots / game28.2
50.9Faceoff %47.6
21.8Hits / game19.9
42−31Season record46−27
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MTL chance · TB chance
Our model fair40.1%59.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MTLMontreal Canadiens+14940%————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−14960%————
SpreadTB by 0.6
MTLMontreal Canadiens+0.6our margin————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.8
Over6.8our total————
Under6.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 0.6 expected
Montreal Canadiens by 7 goals: <1%Montreal Canadiens by 6 goals: <1%Montreal Canadiens by 5 goals: 1%Montreal Canadiens by 4 goals: 4%Montreal Canadiens by 3 goals: 9%Montreal Canadiens by 2 goals: 8%Montreal Canadiens by 1 goal: 18%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 22%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 11%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 14%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 8%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 3%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 7 goals: <1%
← MTL wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more38%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more27%
Montreal Canadiens wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.8 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 8%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 18%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 20%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 5%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.565%
Total over 6.554%
Total over 7.535%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
MTLJakub Dobes G · last 5 starts: .950 save %, 1.59 GAAstarted
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .900 save %, 2.58 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MTL·TB
Mar 29 at CAR
last game
Mar 29 vs NSH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 73+ games
MTL·TB
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.42
3.5
goals / game
3.7
3.2
goals allowed / game
2.8
42−31
season record
46−27
22−15
home record
23−13
20−16
away record
23−14
W5
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
7−3
26.5
shots / game
28.2
50.9
faceoff %
47.6
21.8
hits / game
19.9
16.8
blocked shots / game
12.3
4.5
takeaways / game
4.1
13.8
giveaways / game
14.7

Rating Trend

MTL · TB · 146 days
Montreal CanadiensTampa Bay Lightning
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 7−3
Dec 28, 2025at TBTB 5 − 4 SO
Dec 9, 2025at MTLTB 6 − 1
Feb 9, 2025at MTLTB 5 − 3
Jan 21, 2025at MTLMTL 3 − 2
Dec 29, 2024at TBMTL 5 − 2
Apr 4, 2024at MTLTB 7 − 4
Mar 2, 2024at TBTB 4 − 3 SO
Dec 31, 2023at TBTB 4 − 3
Nov 7, 2023at MTLTB 5 − 3
Mar 21, 2023at MTLMTL 3 − 2

MTL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Mar 29at CAR3 − 1W
Mar 28at NSH4 − 1W
Mar 26vs CBJ2 − 1W
Mar 24vs CAR5 − 2W
Mar 21vs NYI7 − 3W
Mar 19at DET1 − 3L
Mar 17vs BOS3 − 2W
Mar 15vs ANA3 − 4L
Mar 14vs SJ2 − 4L
Mar 11at OTT3 − 2W

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Mar 29vs NSH3 − 2W
Mar 28vs OTT4 − 2W
Mar 26vs SEA3 − 4L
Mar 24vs MIN6 − 3W
Mar 22at CGY3 − 4L
Mar 21at EDM5 − 2W
Mar 19at VAN6 − 2W
Mar 17at SEA6 − 2W
Mar 14vs CAR2 − 4L
Mar 12vs DET4 − 1W