bayesRatings

Predators at Lightning

NHL · Sunday, Mar 29 · 4:00 PM CT · Benchmark International Arena · Final NSH 2 – TB 3
← NHL / Mar 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NSH0112
TB0123
Team box
NSH·TB
31
shots
28
0 of 4
power play
0 of 4
53.8
faceoff %
46.2
19
hits
18
12
blocked shots
13
8
penalty minutes
18
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Jake GuentzelTB123
Filip ForsbergNSH114
Brandon HagelTB105
Joakim KemellNSH102
Corey PerryTB102
Fedor SvechkovNSH012
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Justus AnnunenNSH2825.893
Jonas JohanssonTB3129.935

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
NSH +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: TB 1 · NSH 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NSH 34%, TB 66% · Updated Mar 29

Expected margin
TB by 1.3
Expected score
TB 3.9 – 2.6 NSH
Expected total
6.6
PredatorsThe matchupLightning
+192Our fair odds−192
2.6Expected goals3.9
−0.13Power rating+0.39
3.0Goals / game3.7
3.3Allowed / game2.8
27.8Shots / game28.2
50.5Faceoff %47.6
19.4Hits / game19.9
34−39Season record45−27
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NSH chance · TB chance
Our model fair34.2%65.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NSHNashville Predators+19234%————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−19266%————
SpreadTB by 1.3
NSHNashville Predators+1.3our margin————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.6
Over6.6our total————
Under6.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 1.3 expected
Nashville Predators by 7 goals: <1%Nashville Predators by 6 goals: <1%Nashville Predators by 5 goals: 1%Nashville Predators by 4 goals: 2%Nashville Predators by 3 goals: 5%Nashville Predators by 2 goals: 5%Nashville Predators by 1 goal: 20%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 16%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 13%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 19%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 12%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 5%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 7 goals: 1%
← NSH wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more51%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more38%
Nashville Predators wins by 2 or more13%
Decided by one goal36%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.6 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.563%
Total over 6.551%
Total over 7.532%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NSHJustus Annunen G · last 5 starts: .934 save %, 2.04 GAAstarted
TBJonas Johansson G · last 5 starts: .844 save %, 5.30 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NSH·TB
Mar 28 vs MTL
last game
Mar 28 vs OTT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 72+ games
NSH·TB
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
+0.39
3.0
goals / game
3.7
3.3
goals allowed / game
2.8
34−39
season record
45−27
20−18
home record
22−13
14−21
away record
23−14
L2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
6−4
27.8
shots / game
28.2
50.5
faceoff %
47.6
19.4
hits / game
19.9
11.9
blocked shots / game
12.3
5.3
takeaways / game
4.0
15.1
giveaways / game
14.7

Rating Trend

NSH · TB · 144 days
Nashville PredatorsTampa Bay Lightning
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · TB 8−1
Oct 28, 2025at NSHTB 5 − 2
Nov 29, 2024at NSHTB 3 − 2 OT
Oct 28, 2024at TBTB 3 − 2 OT
Dec 7, 2023at NSHNSH 5 − 1
Oct 10, 2023at TBTB 5 − 3
Dec 8, 2022at TBTB 5 − 2
Nov 19, 2022at NSHTB 3 − 2 OT
Apr 23, 2022at TBTB 6 − 2
Feb 26, 2022at NSHTB 3 − 2

NSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Mar 28vs MTL1 − 4L
Mar 26vs NJ2 − 4L
Mar 24vs SJ6 − 3W
Mar 22at CHI3 − 2W
Mar 21vs VGK4 − 1W
Mar 19vs SEA3 − 1W
Mar 17at WPG4 − 3W
Mar 15at EDM1 − 3L
Mar 12at VAN3 − 4L
Mar 10at SEA4 − 2W

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 28vs OTT4 − 2W
Mar 26vs SEA3 − 4L
Mar 24vs MIN6 − 3W
Mar 22at CGY3 − 4L
Mar 21at EDM5 − 2W
Mar 19at VAN6 − 2W
Mar 17at SEA6 − 2W
Mar 14vs CAR2 − 4L
Mar 12vs DET4 − 1W
Mar 10vs CBJ2 − 5L