bayesRatings

Senators at Lightning

NHL · Saturday, Mar 28 · 12:00 PM CT · Benchmark International Arena · Final OTT 2 – TB 4
← NHL / Mar 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
OTT2002
TB0224
Team box
OTT·TB
28
shots
27
0 of 2
power play
0 of 4
54.7
faceoff %
45.3
23
hits
21
24
blocked shots
12
10
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Emil LillebergTB121
Brandon HagelTB113
Charle-Edouard D'AstousTB111
Jordan SpenceOTT104
Jake GuentzelTB103
Dylan CozensOTT101
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
James ReimerOTT2723.852
Andrei VasilevskiyTB2826.929

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
OTT +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: TB 2 · OTT 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OTT 40%, TB 60% · Updated Mar 28

Expected margin
TB by 0.7
Expected score
TB 3.6 – 2.9 OTT
Expected total
6.5
SenatorsThe matchupLightning
+149Our fair odds−149
2.9Expected goals3.6
+0.13Power rating+0.39
3.4Goals / game3.7
3.1Allowed / game2.8
29.0Shots / game28.3
54.2Faceoff %47.7
24.0Hits / game19.9
38−34Season record44−27
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OTT chance · TB chance
Our model fair40.2%59.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OTTOttawa Senators+14940%————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−14960%————
SpreadTB by 0.7
OTTOttawa Senators+0.7our margin————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 0.7 expected
Ottawa Senators by 7 goals: <1%Ottawa Senators by 6 goals: <1%Ottawa Senators by 5 goals: 1%Ottawa Senators by 4 goals: 4%Ottawa Senators by 3 goals: 8%Ottawa Senators by 2 goals: 7%Ottawa Senators by 1 goal: 20%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 20%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 11%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 15%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 9%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 3%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 7 goals: <1%
← OTT wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more40%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more29%
Ottawa Senators wins by 2 or more20%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.530%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
OTTJames Reimer G · last 5 starts: .900 save %, 1.60 GAAstarted
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .891 save %, 2.59 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OTT·TB
Mar 26 vs PIT
last game
Mar 26 vs SEA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 71+ games
OTT·TB
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
+0.39
3.4
goals / game
3.7
3.1
goals allowed / game
2.8
38−34
season record
44−27
18−17
home record
21−13
20−17
away record
23−14
L1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
29.0
shots / game
28.3
54.2
faceoff %
47.7
24.0
hits / game
19.9
13.5
blocked shots / game
12.3
5.1
takeaways / game
4.1
14.1
giveaways / game
14.7

Rating Trend

OTT · TB · 143 days
Ottawa SenatorsTampa Bay Lightning
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 3−7
Oct 9, 2025at TBOTT 5 − 4
Apr 3, 2025at OTTOTT 2 − 1
Feb 6, 2025at TBTB 5 − 1
Feb 4, 2025at TBTB 4 − 3
Oct 19, 2024at OTTOTT 5 − 4
Apr 11, 2024at TBOTT 3 − 2 SO
Feb 19, 2024at TBOTT 4 − 2
Nov 4, 2023at OTTTB 6 − 4
Oct 15, 2023at OTTOTT 5 − 2
Apr 8, 2023at OTTOTT 7 − 4

OTT · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Mar 26vs PIT3 − 4L
Mar 24at DET3 − 2W
Mar 23at NYR2 − 1W
Mar 21vs TOR5 − 2W
Mar 19vs NYI3 − 2W
Mar 18at WSH1 − 4L
Mar 15vs SJ7 − 4W
Mar 14vs ANA2 − 0W
Mar 11vs MTL2 − 3L
Mar 9at VAN2 − 0W

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 26vs SEA3 − 4L
Mar 24vs MIN6 − 3W
Mar 22at CGY3 − 4L
Mar 21at EDM5 − 2W
Mar 19at VAN6 − 2W
Mar 17at SEA6 − 2W
Mar 14vs CAR2 − 4L
Mar 12vs DET4 − 1W
Mar 10vs CBJ2 − 5L
Mar 8at BUF7 − 8L