bayesRatings

Ducks at Senators

NHL · Saturday, Mar 14 · 12:00 PM CT · Canadian Tire Centre · Final ANA 0 – OTT 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
ANA0000
OTT0202
Team box
ANA·OTT
24
shots
28
0 of 3
power play
0 of 4
60.0
faceoff %
40.0
24
hits
23
12
blocked shots
17
10
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Shane PintoOTT023
Michael AmadioOTT102
Thomas ChabotOTT102
Nick CousinsOTT010
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Ville HussoANA2826.929
Linus UllmarkOTT24241.000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OTT +3
ANA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: OTT 2 · ANA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ANA 41%, OTT 59% · Updated Mar 14

Expected margin
OTT by 0.7
Expected score
OTT 3.7 – 3.0 ANA
Expected total
6.7
DucksThe matchupSenators
+147Our fair odds−147
3.0Expected goals3.7
−0.13Power rating+0.10
3.4Goals / game3.4
3.5Allowed / game3.1
30.4Shots / game28.8
47.0Faceoff %54.1
21.2Hits / game23.9
36−29Season record32−32
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ANA chance · OTT chance
Our model fair40.5%59.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ANAAnaheim Ducks+14741%————
OTTOttawa Senators−14759%————
SpreadOTT by 0.7
ANAAnaheim Ducks+0.7our margin————
OTTOttawa Senators−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.7
Over6.7our total————
Under6.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Ottawa Senators by 0.7 expected
Anaheim Ducks by 7 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 1%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 4%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 8%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 7%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 20%Ottawa Senators by 1 goal: 20%Ottawa Senators by 2 goals: 11%Ottawa Senators by 3 goals: 15%Ottawa Senators by 4 goals: 9%Ottawa Senators by 5 goals: 4%Ottawa Senators by 6 goals: 1%Ottawa Senators by 7 goals: <1%
← ANA wins byOTT wins by →
Ottawa Senators wins by 2 or more40%
Ottawa Senators wins by 3 or more29%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more20%
Decided by one goal39%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.7 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 8%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 18%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.564%
Total over 6.553%
Total over 7.533%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
ANAVille Husso G · last 5 starts: .912 save %, 2.81 GAAstarted
OTTLinus Ullmark G · last 5 starts: .879 save %, 3.02 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ANA·OTT
Mar 12 at TOR
last game
Mar 11 vs MTL
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 64+ games
ANA·OTT
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
3.4
goals / game
3.4
3.5
goals allowed / game
3.1
36−29
season record
32−32
22−11
home record
14−16
14−18
away record
18−16
L1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
6−4
30.4
shots / game
28.8
47.0
faceoff %
54.1
21.2
hits / game
23.9
14.8
blocked shots / game
13.6
5.0
takeaways / game
5.0
15.6
giveaways / game
13.9

Rating Trend

ANA · OTT · 129 days
Anaheim DucksOttawa Senators
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · OTT 4−5
Nov 20, 2025at ANAOTT 3 − 2
Dec 11, 2024at OTTOTT 5 − 1
Dec 1, 2024at ANAANA 4 − 3 SO
Mar 6, 2024at ANAANA 2 − 1
Feb 15, 2024at OTTANA 5 − 1
Dec 12, 2022at OTTOTT 3 − 0
Nov 25, 2022at ANAOTT 5 − 1
Jan 29, 2022at OTTANA 2 − 1
Nov 26, 2021at ANAANA 4 − 0

ANA · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Mar 12at TOR4 − 6L
Mar 10at WPG4 − 1W
Mar 8vs STL0 − 4L
Mar 6vs MTL6 − 5W
Mar 4vs NYI5 − 1W
Mar 3vs COL1 − 5L
Mar 1vs CGY3 − 2W
Feb 27vs WPG5 − 4W
Feb 25vs EDM6 − 5W
Feb 3vs SEA4 − 2W

OTT · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Mar 11vs MTL2 − 3L
Mar 9at VAN2 − 0W
Mar 7at SEA7 − 4W
Mar 5at CGY4 − 1W
Mar 3at EDM4 − 5L
Feb 28at TOR5 − 2W
Feb 26vs DET1 − 2L
Feb 5at PHI2 − 1W
Feb 3at CAR3 − 4L
Feb 2at PIT3 − 2W