bayesRatings

Blues at Ducks

NHL · Sunday, Mar 8 · 8:00 PM CT · Honda Center · Final STL 4 – ANA 0

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
STL0314
ANA0000
Team box
STL·ANA
35
shots
22
1 of 3
power play
0 of 5
42.3
faceoff %
57.7
8
hits
20
14
blocked shots
16
27
penalty minutes
14
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Joel HoferSTL22221.000
Ville HussoANA3431.912

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ANA +4
STL +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: ANA 0 · STL 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 44%, ANA 56% · Updated Mar 8

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ANA 3.4 – 3.1 STL
Expected total
6.5
BluesThe matchupDucks
+126Our fair odds−126
3.1Expected goals3.4
−0.17Power rating−0.11
2.6Goals / game3.4
3.4Allowed / game3.5
25.0Shots / game30.3
49.7Faceoff %47.0
23.3Hits / game21.4
24−38Season record35−27
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · ANA chance
Our model fair44.3%55.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Blues+12644%————
ANAAnaheim Ducks−12656%————
Spreadabout even
STLSt. Louis Blues+0.3our margin————
ANAAnaheim Ducks−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
St. Louis Blues by 6 goals: <1%St. Louis Blues by 5 goals: 2%St. Louis Blues by 4 goals: 5%St. Louis Blues by 3 goals: 10%St. Louis Blues by 2 goals: 9%St. Louis Blues by 1 goal: 19%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 23%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 10%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 13%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 7%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 3%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: 1%
← STL wins byANA wins by →
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more33%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 3 or more23%
St. Louis Blues wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,072 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.530%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,072 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
STLJoel Hofer G · last 5 starts: .893 save %, 2.81 GAAstarted
ANAVille Husso G · last 5 starts: .902 save %, 2.96 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·ANA
Mar 6 at SJ
last game
Mar 6 vs MTL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
4th straight road game
home / road
9th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 62+ games
STL·ANA
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
2.6
goals / game
3.4
3.4
goals allowed / game
3.5
24−38
season record
35−27
14−18
home record
22−10
10−20
away record
13−17
W3
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
7−3
25.0
shots / game
30.3
49.7
faceoff %
47.0
23.3
hits / game
21.4
14.2
blocked shots / game
14.9
4.4
takeaways / game
5.0
14.3
giveaways / game
15.7

Rating Trend

STL · ANA · 123 days
St. Louis BluesAnaheim Ducks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ANA 1−9
Dec 1, 2025at STLANA 4 − 1
Mar 16, 2025at STLSTL 7 − 2
Mar 7, 2025at ANASTL 4 − 3
Jan 9, 2025at STLSTL 6 − 2
Apr 7, 2024at ANASTL 6 − 5 SO
Mar 17, 2024at STLSTL 4 − 2
Nov 19, 2023at ANASTL 3 − 1
Mar 25, 2023at ANASTL 6 − 3
Nov 21, 2022at STLSTL 3 − 1
Nov 19, 2022at STLSTL 6 − 2

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Mar 6at SJ3 − 2W
Mar 4at SEA3 − 2W
Mar 1at MIN3 − 1W
Feb 28vs NJ1 − 3L
Feb 26vs SEA5 − 1W
Feb 4at DAL4 − 5L
Feb 2at NSH5 − 6L
Jan 31vs CBJ3 − 5L
Jan 29vs FLA5 − 4W
Jan 27vs DAL3 − 4L

ANA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Mar 6vs MTL6 − 5W
Mar 4vs NYI5 − 1W
Mar 3vs COL1 − 5L
Mar 1vs CGY3 − 2W
Feb 27vs WPG5 − 4W
Feb 25vs EDM6 − 5W
Feb 3vs SEA4 − 2W
Feb 1vs VGK4 − 3W
Jan 29at VAN0 − 2L
Jan 26at EDM4 − 7L