bayesRatings

Panthers at Blues

NHL · Thursday, Jan 29 · 7:00 PM CT · Enterprise Center · Final FLA 4 – STL 5
← NHL / Jan 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
FLA2204
STL3115
Team box
FLA·STL
20
shots
31
2 of 7
power play
1 of 5
53.7
faceoff %
46.3
17
hits
26
8
blocked shots
17
19
penalty minutes
25
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Matthew TkachukFLA215
Jordan KyrouSTL123
Sam ReinhartFLA113
Justin FaulkSTL024
Pavel BuchnevichSTL022
Jimmy SnuggerudSTL105
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Daniil TarasovFLA3126.839
Joel HoferSTL2016.800

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
FLA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: STL 2 · FLA 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was FLA 54%, STL 46% · Updated Jan 29

Expected margin
FLA by 0.5
Expected score
FLA 3.1 – 2.6 STL
Expected total
5.7
PanthersThe matchupBlues
−119Our fair odds+119
3.1Expected goals2.6
+0.16Power rating−0.17
3.1Goals / game2.5
3.2Allowed / game3.5
28.9Shots / game24.8
47.2Faceoff %50.0
25.3Hits / game23.6
28−24Season record19−34
6−4Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
FLA chance · STL chance
Our model fair54.3%45.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
FLAFlorida Panthers−11954%————
STLSt. Louis Blues+11946%————
SpreadFLA by 0.5
FLAFlorida Panthers−0.5our margin————
STLSt. Louis Blues+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.7
Over5.7our total————
Under5.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Florida Panthers by 0.5 expected
Florida Panthers by 6 goals: 1%Florida Panthers by 5 goals: 3%Florida Panthers by 4 goals: 8%Florida Panthers by 3 goals: 14%Florida Panthers by 2 goals: 12%Florida Panthers by 1 goal: 18%St. Louis Blues by 1 goal: 26%St. Louis Blues by 2 goals: 8%St. Louis Blues by 3 goals: 8%St. Louis Blues by 4 goals: 3%St. Louis Blues by 5 goals: 1%St. Louis Blues by 6 goals: <1%
← FLA wins bySTL wins by →
Florida Panthers wins by 2 or more37%
Florida Panthers wins by 3 or more25%
St. Louis Blues wins by 2 or more20%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.7 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.570%
Total over 5.548%
Total over 6.537%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
FLADaniil Tarasov G · last 5 starts: .934 save %, 1.56 GAAstarted
STLJoel Hofer G · last 5 starts: .911 save %, 2.37 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
FLA·STL
Jan 27 vs UTAH
last game
Jan 27 vs DAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 52+ games
FLA·STL
+0.16
rating (0 = average)
−0.17
3.1
goals / game
2.5
3.2
goals allowed / game
3.5
28−24
season record
19−34
14−14
home record
12−16
14−10
away record
7−18
L1
streak
L5
6−4
last 10
2−8
28.9
shots / game
24.8
47.2
faceoff %
50.0
25.3
hits / game
23.6
12.2
blocked shots / game
14.7
4.3
takeaways / game
4.3
14.2
giveaways / game
14.2

Rating Trend

FLA · STL · 104 days
Florida PanthersSt. Louis Blues
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · STL 5−4
Dec 20, 2025at FLASTL 6 − 2
Feb 6, 2025at STLFLA 3 − 2
Dec 20, 2024at FLAFLA 2 − 1 OT
Jan 9, 2024at STLFLA 5 − 1
Dec 21, 2023at FLASTL 4 − 1
Feb 14, 2023at STLSTL 6 − 2
Nov 26, 2022at FLASTL 5 − 4 OT
Dec 7, 2021at STLSTL 4 − 3 OT
Dec 4, 2021at FLAFLA 4 − 3 SO

FLA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 27vs UTAH3 − 4L
Jan 25at CHI5 − 1W
Jan 24at MIN4 − 3W
Jan 22at WPG2 − 1W
Jan 19vs SJ1 − 4L
Jan 17at WSH5 − 2W
Jan 16at CAR1 − 9L
Jan 12at BUF4 − 3W
Jan 10at OTT3 − 2W
Jan 8at MTL2 − 6L

STL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
Jan 27vs DAL3 − 4L
Jan 24vs LA4 − 5L
Jan 23at DAL2 − 3L
Jan 20at WPG1 − 3L
Jan 18at EDM0 − 5L
Jan 16vs TB3 − 2W
Jan 13vs CAR3 − 0W
Jan 10at VGK2 − 4L
Jan 9at UTAH2 − 4L
Jan 7at CHI3 − 7L