bayesRatings

Devils at Predators

NHL · Thursday, Mar 26 · 7:00 PM CT · Bridgestone Arena · Final NJ 4 – NSH 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NJ1124
NSH0202
Team box
NJ·NSH
30
shots
17
1 of 3
power play
0 of 1
65.2
faceoff %
34.8
21
hits
13
17
blocked shots
13
2
penalty minutes
26
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jacob MarkstromNJ1715.882
Justus AnnunenNSH2926.897

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NSH +3
NJ +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: NSH 0 · NJ 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NJ 47%, NSH 53% · Updated Mar 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NSH 2.9 – 2.9 NJ
Expected total
5.8
DevilsThe matchupPredators
+111Our fair odds−111
2.9Expected goals2.9
−0.09Power rating−0.13
2.8Goals / game3.0
3.0Allowed / game3.3
30.0Shots / game28.0
50.7Faceoff %50.7
18.8Hits / game19.4
36−34Season record34−37
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NJ chance · NSH chance
Our model fair47.3%52.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NJNew Jersey Devils+11147%————
NSHNashville Predators−11153%————
Spreadabout even
NJNew Jersey Devils+0.1our margin————
NSHNashville Predators−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.8
Over5.8our total————
Under5.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New Jersey Devils by 6 goals: <1%New Jersey Devils by 5 goals: 2%New Jersey Devils by 4 goals: 5%New Jersey Devils by 3 goals: 10%New Jersey Devils by 2 goals: 10%New Jersey Devils by 1 goal: 20%Nashville Predators by 1 goal: 24%Nashville Predators by 2 goals: 10%Nashville Predators by 3 goals: 11%Nashville Predators by 4 goals: 5%Nashville Predators by 5 goals: 2%Nashville Predators by 6 goals: <1%
← NJ wins byNSH wins by →
Nashville Predators wins by 2 or more29%
Nashville Predators wins by 3 or more19%
New Jersey Devils wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.8 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.572%
Total over 5.549%
Total over 6.538%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NJJacob Markstrom G · last 5 starts: .857 save %, 3.41 GAAstarted
NSHJustus Annunen G · last 5 starts: .938 save %, 1.82 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NJ·NSH
Mar 24 at DAL
last game
Mar 24 vs SJ
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
4
4th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 70+ games
NJ·NSH
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
2.8
goals / game
3.0
3.0
goals allowed / game
3.3
36−34
season record
34−37
18−17
home record
20−16
18−17
away record
14−21
W1
streak
W5
7−3
last 10
7−3
30.0
shots / game
28.0
50.7
faceoff %
50.7
18.8
hits / game
19.4
14.0
blocked shots / game
12.0
4.7
takeaways / game
5.3
15.6
giveaways / game
15.0

Rating Trend

NJ · NSH · 141 days
New Jersey DevilsNashville Predators
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · NSH 5−4
Jan 29at NJNJ 3 − 2 OT
Feb 23, 2025at NSHNJ 5 − 0
Nov 25, 2024at NJNJ 5 − 2
Apr 7, 2024at NJNSH 3 − 2 SO
Feb 13, 2024at NSHNJ 4 − 2
Jan 26, 2023at NSHNSH 6 − 4
Dec 1, 2022at NJNSH 4 − 3 OT
Dec 10, 2021at NJNSH 3 − 2
Nov 26, 2021at NSHNSH 4 − 2

NJ · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Mar 24at DAL6 − 4W
Mar 20at WSH1 − 2L
Mar 18at NYR6 − 3W
Mar 16vs BOS4 − 3W
Mar 14vs LA6 − 4W
Mar 12vs CGY4 − 5L
Mar 8vs DET0 − 3L
Mar 7vs NYR6 − 3W
Mar 4vs TOR4 − 3W
Mar 3vs FLA5 − 1W

NSH · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Mar 24vs SJ6 − 3W
Mar 22at CHI3 − 2W
Mar 21vs VGK4 − 1W
Mar 19vs SEA3 − 1W
Mar 17at WPG4 − 3W
Mar 15at EDM1 − 3L
Mar 12at VAN3 − 4L
Mar 10at SEA4 − 2W
Mar 7at BUF2 − 3L
Mar 5vs BOS6 − 3W