bayesRatings

Avalanche at Golden Knights

NHL · Sunday, May 24 · 7:00 PM CT · T-Mobile Arena · Final COL 3 – VGK 5
← NHL / May 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
COL3003
VGK0325
Team box
COL·VGK
35
shots
23
0 of 4
power play
1 of 3
44.6
faceoff %
55.4
17
hits
34
11
blocked shots
22
18
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Mark StoneVGK113
Tomas HertlVGK113
William KarlssonVGK112
Devon ToewsCOL022
Mitch MarnerVGK022
Kaedan KorczakVGK020
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Scott WedgewoodCOL2218.818
Carter HartVGK3532.914

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
VGK +3
COL +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: VGK 2 · COL 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 60%, VGK 40% · Updated May 24

Expected margin
COL by 0.6
Expected score
COL 3.3 – 2.7 VGK
Expected total
6.0
AvalancheThe matchupGolden Knights
−148Our fair odds+148
3.3Expected goals2.7
+0.67Power rating+0.14
3.7Goals / game3.2
2.5Allowed / game3.0
33.7Shots / game29.0
51.3Faceoff %50.8
16.6Hits / game20.9
55−27 · 8−3 postSeason record39−43 · 10−4 post
7−3Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · VGK chance
Our model fair59.6%40.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Avalanche−14860%————
VGKVegas Golden Knights+14840%————
SpreadCOL by 0.6
COLColorado Avalanche−0.6our margin————
VGKVegas Golden Knights+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 0.6 expected
Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 3%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 8%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 14%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 11%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 22%Vegas Golden Knights by 1 goal: 20%Vegas Golden Knights by 2 goals: 8%Vegas Golden Knights by 3 goals: 8%Vegas Golden Knights by 4 goals: 4%Vegas Golden Knights by 5 goals: 1%Vegas Golden Knights by 6 goals: <1%
← COL wins byVGK wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more37%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more26%
Vegas Golden Knights wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.542%
Total over 7.523%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
COLScott Wedgewood G · last 5 starts: .896 save %, 2.83 GAAstarted
VGKCarter Hart G · last 5 starts: .938 save %, 1.99 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·VGK
May 22 vs VGK
last game
May 22 at COL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
COL·VGK
+0.67
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
3.7
goals / game
3.2
2.5
goals allowed / game
3.0
55−27 · 8−3 post
season record
39−43 · 10−4 post
26−15
home record
20−21
29−12
away record
19−22
L2
streak
W4
7−3
last 10
8−2
33.7
shots / game
29.0
51.3
faceoff %
50.8
16.6
hits / game
20.9
12.7
blocked shots / game
14.4
4.5
takeaways / game
4.4
15.8
giveaways / game
16.1

Rating Trend

COL · VGK · 195 days
Colorado AvalancheVegas Golden Knights
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · VGK 5−5
May 22at COLVGK 3 − 1post
May 20at COLVGK 4 − 2post
Apr 11at COLVGK 3 − 2 OT
Dec 27, 2025at VGKCOL 6 − 5 SO
Oct 31, 2025at VGKCOL 4 − 2
Apr 8, 2025at COLCOL 3 − 2 SO
Nov 27, 2024at COLCOL 2 − 1 SO
Oct 9, 2024at VGKVGK 8 − 4
Apr 14, 2024at VGKVGK 4 − 3 OT
Jan 10, 2024at COLCOL 3 − 0

COL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
May 22vs VGK1 − 3L
May 20vs VGK2 − 4L
May 13vs MIN4 − 3W
May 11at MIN5 − 2W
May 9at MIN1 − 5L
May 5vs MIN5 − 2W
May 3vs MIN9 − 6W
Apr 26at LA5 − 1W
Apr 23at LA4 − 2W
Apr 21vs LA2 − 1W

VGK · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
May 22at COL3 − 1W
May 20at COL4 − 2W
May 14at ANA5 − 1W
May 12vs ANA3 − 2W
May 10at ANA3 − 4L
May 8at ANA6 − 2W
May 6vs ANA1 − 3L
May 4vs ANA3 − 1W
May 1at UTAH5 − 1W
Apr 29vs UTAH5 − 4W